Maximilian J. Werner
School of Earth Sciences, Cabot Institute
University of Bristol (United Kingdom)
University of Bristol (United Kingdom)
Associate Professor of Geophysics and Natural Hazards
Expertise: Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability, Earthquake Triggering and Clustering, Earthquake Seismology, Seismic Hazard, Statistical Seismology
About Me
Publications
Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Schorlemmer, D., Herrmann, M., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Graham, K., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Seismological Research Letters. Modernizing CSEP Earthquake Forecasting Experiments: The Floating Testing Center, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 12726
Werner, M. J. (2020, 08). Experimental Design for Testing Hypotheses of Earthquake Precursors . Oral Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10245
Stockman, S., Lawson, D., & Werner, M. J. (2024, 09). EarthquakeNPP: Benchmark Datasets for Earthquake Forecasting with Neural Point Processes. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14060
Silva, F., Serafini, F., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Milner, K. R., & Savran, W. H. (2024, 09). Next-day CSEP forecasts: Establishing a Benchmark. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14053
Graham, K., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Iturrieta, P. C., Serafini, F., Biondini, E., Rhoades, D. A., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Gerstenberger, M. C., Silva, F., & Werner, M. J. (2024, 09). Advancements in pyCSEP: Enhancing Earthquake Forecast Evaluation with New Features and Regional Applications. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14015
Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Werner, M. J., Mizrahi, L., Han, M., Bayliss, K., Iturrieta, P. C., & Bayona, J. A. (2024, 09). Exploring new statistical metrics to evaluate the magnitude distribution of earthquake forecasting models. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13875
Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Taroni, M., Falcone, G., Cotton, F., Asim, K. M., Savran, W. H., & Marzocchi, W. (2024). Evaluation of a decade-long prospective earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy. Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220230247. SCEC Contribution 12738
Bayona, J. A., Herrmann, M., Savran, W. H., Silva, F., Maechling, P. J., Marzocchi, W., & Werner, M. J. (2023, 09). A Decade of Prospective Evaluations of One-Day Seismicity Forecasts for California: First Results. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13163
Mizrahi, L., Dallo, I., Kuratle, L. D., Christophersen, A., van der Elst, N. J., Werner, M. J., Spassiani, I., Falcone, G., Herrmann, M., Schneider, M., Page, M. T., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Bayona, J. A., Marzocchi, W., iervolino, i., & Wiemer, S. (2023, 09). Developing, testing and communicating earthquake forecasts: an expert elicitation for good practice recommendations. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13156
Maechling, P. J., Silva, F., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Graham, K., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., & Werner, M. J. (2023, 09). Extending pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12877
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Graham, K., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy. The Seismic Record, 3(2), 86-95. doi: 10.1785/0320230006. SCEC Contribution 12706
Asim, K. M., Hainzl, S., Schorlemmer, D., Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., & Marzocchi, W. (2023). Statistical power of spatial earthquake forecast tests. Geophysical Journal International,. doi: doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad030. SCEC Contribution 12691
Asim, K. M., Schorlemmer, D., Hainzl, S., Iturrieta, P. C., Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Multi-Resolution Grids in Earthquake Forecasting: The Quadtree Approach. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(1), 333-347. doi: 10.1785/0120220028. SCEC Contribution 12751
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P. C., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2022, 09). Modernizing CSEP experiments: The Floating Testing Center. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12583
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., & Werner, M. J. (2022, 09). Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models more Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12344
Stockman, S., Lawson, D., & Werner, M. J. (2022, 09). Forecasting the 2016-2017 Central Apennines Earthquake Sequence with a Neural Marked Point Process. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11932
Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Lindgren, F., Werner, M. J., & Main, I. (2022). Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment. Geophysical Journal International, 230(2), 1419-1440. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac124. SCEC Contribution 11791
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220220033. SCEC Contribution 11740
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., & Maechling, P. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit For Earthquake Forecast Developers. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(69). doi: 10.21105/joss.03658. SCEC Contribution 11017
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac018. SCEC Contribution 11011
Husker, A. L., Werner, M. J., & Santoyo, M. (2021, 08). A Test of the Earthquake Gap Hypothesis in Mexico. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11642
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., & Werner, M. J. (2021, 08). Are regionally calibrated earthquake forecast models more informative than global models? First results from California and Italy. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11537
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., & Maechling, P. J. (2021, 08). Reproducible earthquake forecasting experiments with pyCSEP. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11535
Lim, C., Lapins, S., Werner, M. J., & Segou, M. (2021, 08). Microseismic monitoring using deep learning. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11440
Mancini, S., Werner, M. J., Segou, M., & Baptie, B. (2021). Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing-Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220200454. SCEC Contribution 10149
Zhang, L., Werner, M. J., & Goda, K. (2020). Variability of ETAS Parameters in Global Subduction Zones and Applications to Mainshock–Aftershock Hazard Assessment. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(1), 191-212. doi: 10.1785/0120190121. SCEC Contribution 9081
Savran, W. H., Khawaja, A. M., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Schorlemmer, D., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2020, 08). PyCSEP: An Open-Source Toolkit for Evaluating Earthquake Forecast Models . Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10342
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. doi: 10.1785/0120200026. SCEC Contribution 10082
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Parsons, T. (2020). The Predictive Skills of Elastic Coulomb Rate-and-State Aftershock Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1736-1751. doi: 10.1785/0120200028. SCEC Contribution 10017
Zhang, L., Goda, K., Werner, M. J., & Tesfamariam, S. (2020). Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics,. doi: 10.1002/eqe.3286. SCEC Contribution 10013
Werner, M. J., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., & Yu, J. (2019, 08). An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9842
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Parsons, T., & Werner, M. J. (2019, 08). Prospective and Pseudo-prospective Aftershock Forecasts After the July 2019 M6.4 Searles Valley and M7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquakes. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9689
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Michael, A. J., Jordan, T. H., & Maechling, P. J. (2019, 08). Pseudo-Prospective Evaluation of Operational UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9576
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., & Werner, M. J. (2019, 08). Operational earthquake forecasting during the M6.4 Searles Valley and M7.1 Ridgecrest sequence using the UCERF3-ETAS model—evaluation and lessons learned. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9401
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Cattania, C. (2019). Improving Physics‐Based Aftershock Forecasts During the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 8626-8643. doi: 10.1029/2019JB017874. SCEC Contribution 9015
Kettlety, T., Verdon, J., Werner, M. J., Kendall, J., & Budge, J. (2019). Investigating the role of elastostatic stress transfer during hydraulic fracturing-induced fault activation. Geophysical Journal International,. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggz080. SCEC Contribution 8961
Zhang, L., Werner, M. J., & Goda, K. (2018). Spatiotemporal Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment of Aftershocks of M9 Mega-Thrust Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(6), 3313-3335. SCEC Contribution 8885
Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Werner, M. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., Yu, J., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability version 2.0 (CSEP2.0): New Capabilities in Earthquake Forecasting and Testing . Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8805
Michael, A. J., & Werner, M. J. (2018). Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New Results and Future Directions. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1226-1228. doi: 10.1785/0220180161. SCEC Contribution 8086
Strader, A., Werner, M., Bayona Viveros, J. A., Maechling, P., Silva, F., Liukis, M., & Schorlemmer, D. (2018). Prospective Evaluation of Global Earthquake Forecast Models: 2 Yrs of Observations Provide Preliminary Support for Merging Smoothed Seismicity with Geodetic Strain Rates. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1262-1271. doi: 10.1785/0220180051. SCEC Contribution 8049
Cattania, C., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Liukis, M., Savran, W., Christophersen, A., Helmstetter, A., Jimenez, A., Steacy, S., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250. doi: 10.1785/0220180033. SCEC Contribution 8045
Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D. D., Mak, S., Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Hirata, N., Liukis, M., Maechling, P. J., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. D., & Zhuang, J. (2018). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1305-1313. doi: 10.1785/0220180053. SCEC Contribution 8036
Taroni, M., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. D., Heiniger, L., & Euchner, F. (2018). Prospective CSEP Evaluation of 1‐Day, 3‐Month, and 5‐Yr Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1251-1261. doi: 10.1785/0220180031. SCEC Contribution 8022
Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Liukis, M., Silva, F., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1229-1237. doi: 10.1785/0220180032. SCEC Contribution 8012
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T. E., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., & Thatcher, W. R. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters, 88(5), 1259-1267. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3), 1049-1081. doi: 10.1785/0120110177. SCEC Contribution 7163
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2016, 08). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6920
Liukis, M., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Yu, J., Maechling, P. J., Jackson, D. D., Rhoades, D. A., Zechar, Z. D., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., & Working Group, t. (2016, 08). Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6908
Werner, M. J., Liukis, M., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Taroni, M., Zechar, Z. D., & Jordan, T. H. (2016, 08). CSEP Evaluations of 24-Hour Earthquake Forecasting Models for California: New Results and Ensemble Models. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6873
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2014). Regional earthquake likelihood models II: Information gains of multiplicative hybrids. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6), 2203-2215. doi: 10.1785/0120140035. SCEC Contribution 1837
Meier, M., Werner, M. J., Woessner, J., & Wiemer, S. (2014). A Search for Evidence of Secondary Static Stress Triggering during the 1992 M7.3 Landers, California, Earthquake Sequence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119(4), 3354-3370. doi: 10.1002/2013JB010385. SCEC Contribution 1766
Helmstetter, A., & Werner, M. J. (2014). Adaptive Smoothing of Seismicity in Time, Space, and Magnitude for Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasts in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(2), 809-822. doi: 10.1785/0120130105. SCEC Contribution 1765
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2013, 9). Short-Term Earthquake Predictability in California. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1896
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2013, 9). Multiplicative Hybrids of Models from the Five-Year RELM Experiment. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. doi: 10.1785/0120140035. SCEC Contribution 1895
Zhuang, J., Werner, M. J., & Harte, D. (2013). Stability of Earthquake Clustering Models: Criticality and Branching Ratios. Physical Review E, 88(6), 062109. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109. SCEC Contribution 1809
Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., & Jordan, T. H. (2013). Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 787-798. doi: 10.1785/0120120186. SCEC Contribution 1664
Helmstetter, A., & Werner, M. J. (2012). Adaptive Spatiotemporal Smoothing of Seismicity for Long‐Term Earthquake Forecasts in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(6), 2518-2529. doi: 10.1785/0120120062. SCEC Contribution 1667
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). High Resolution Long-Term and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(4), 1630-1648. doi: 10.1785/0120090340. SCEC Contribution 1435
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Wiemer, S. (2010). Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3). SCEC Contribution 1437
Werner, M. J., Zechar, J. D., Marzocchi, W., & Wiemer, S. (2010). Retrospective Evaluation of the Five-Year and Ten-Year CSEP-Italy Earthquake Forecasts. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3). SCEC Contribution 1436
Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J. D., Werner, M. J., Field, E. H., Jackson, D. D., & Jordan, T. H. (2010). First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment. Pure and Applied Geophysics,. SCEC Contribution 1230
Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., Schoenberg, F. P., & Werner, M. J. (2009). Linear and nonlinear relations between relative plate velocity and seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(6), 3097-3113. doi: 10.1785/0120090082. SCEC Contribution 1264
Sornette, D., & Werner, M. J. (2005). Apparent Clustering and Apparent Background Earthquakes Biased by Undetected Seismicity. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B09303). doi: 10.1029/2005JB003621. SCEC Contribution 860
Sornette, D., & Werner, M. J. (2005). Constraints on the size of the smallest triggering earthquake from the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, Båth's law, and observed aftershock sequences. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B08304). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003535 . SCEC Contribution 859
Last updated Oct 28, 2024.
