Morgan T. Page
U.S. Geological Survey
Research Geophysicist
Expertise: Statistical Seismology
About Me
Publications
Clements, T., Cochran, E. S., Minson, S. E., van der Elst, N. J., Yoon, C. E., Baltay, A. S., & Page, M. T. (2024, 09). Beyond Magnitudes and Catalogs: Application of Gutenberg-Richter and Omori Laws to Continuous Seismograms. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13965
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & Hainzl, S. (2024, 09). Testing Rate-and-State Predictions of Aftershock Decay with Distance. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13618
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hatem, A., Powers, P. M., Pollitz, F. F., Llenos, A. L., Zeng, Y., Johnson, K. M., Shaw, B. E., McPhillips, D., Thompson, J., Shumway, A. M., Michael, A. J., Shen, Z., Evans, E. L., Hearn, E. H., Mueller, C. S., Frankel, A., Petersen, M. D., DuRoss, C. B., Briggs, R., Page, M. T., Rubinstein, J. L., & Herrick, J. (2023). The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. doi: 10.1785/0120230120. SCEC Contribution 13392
Petersen, M. D., Shumway, A. M., Powers, P. M., Field, E. H., Moschetti, M. P., Jaiswal, K. S., Milner, K. R., Rezaeian, S., Frankel, A., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Altekruse, J., Ahdi, S. K., Withers, K. B., Mueller, C. S., Zeng, Y., Chase, R., Salditch, L., Luco, N., Rukstales, K. S., Herrick, J. A., Girot, D. L., Aagaard, B. T., Bender, A. M., Blanpied, M. L., Briggs, R., Boyd, O. S., Clayton, B. S., DuRoss, C. B., Evans, E. L., Haeussler, P., Hatem, A., Haynie, K. L., Hearn, E. H., Johnson, K. M., Kortum, Z. A., Kwong, N. S., Makdisi, A. J., Mason, B., McNamara, D., McPhillips, D., Okubo, P., Page, M. T., Pollitz, F. F., Rubinstein, J. L., Shaw, B. E., Shen, Z., Shiro, B., Smith, J. A., Stephenson, W. J., Thompson, E. M., Thompson Jobe, J. A., Wirth, E., & Witter, R. C. (2023). The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications. Earthquake Spectra,. doi: 10.1177/87552930231215428. SCEC Contribution 13391
Schneider, M., Wein, A., van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Becker, J. S., Castro, R. R., Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Mixco, L., Page, M. T., & Palomo, J. (2023, 09). Visual Communication of Aftershock Forecasts Driven by User Needs . Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13289
Mizrahi, L., Dallo, I., Kuratle, L. D., Christophersen, A., van der Elst, N. J., Werner, M. J., Spassiani, I., Falcone, G., Herrmann, M., Schneider, M., Page, M. T., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Bayona, J. A., Marzocchi, W., iervolino, i., & Wiemer, S. (2023, 09). Developing, testing and communicating earthquake forecasts: an expert elicitation for good practice recommendations. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13156
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2023, 09). Testing Rate-and-State Predictions of Aftershock Decay. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13099
van der Elst, N. J., & Page, M. T. (2023, 09). A-positive: How to get unbiased rates out of real earthquake catalogs without knowing the magnitude of completeness. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12778
Schneider, M., Guttorp, P., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M. J., Michael, A. J., Hardebeck, J. L., & Page, M. T. (2022, 09). Bayesian ETAS for Improved Earthquake Rate Models for the Pacific Northwest. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12235
Page, M. T., Cochran, E. S., van der Elst, N. J., Ross, Z. E., & Trugman, D. (2022, 09). Linking fault roughness and earthquake behavior. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12126
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Savran, W. H., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021). Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS). The Seismic Record, 1(2), 117-125. doi: 10.1785/0320210017. SCEC Contribution 11677
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021, 08). Aftershocks Preferentially Occur in Previously Active Areas. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11381
van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., & Page, M. T. (2021, 08). Communicating Aftershock Forecasts for Situational Awareness During Humanitarian Response. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11307
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Page, M. T., & Jordan, T. H. (2020). Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567-1578. doi: 10.1785/0220190294. SCEC Contribution 9937
Hauksson, E., Olson, B., Grant, A., Andrews, J. R., Chung, A. I., Hough, S. E., Kanamori, H., McBride, S. K., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., Ross, Z. E., Smith, D. E., & Valkaniotis, S. N. (2020). The Normal-Faulting 2020 Mw 5.8 Lone Pine, Eastern California, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 92(2A), 679-698. doi: 10.1785/0220200324. SCEC Contribution 11888
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., & Page, M. T. (2020). Generalizing the Inversion-Based PSHA Source Model for an Interconnected Fault System. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 111(1), 371-390. doi: 10.1785/0120200219. SCEC Contribution 11859
Page, M. T. (2020, 08). Aftershocks Preferentially Occur in Previously Active Areas. Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10546
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Page, M. T., & Jordan, T. H. (2020). Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567-1578. doi: 10.1785/0220190294. SCEC Contribution 10129
Page, M. T., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., & van der Elst, N. J. (2019, 08). Explaining the paleo-event hiatus in California. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9511
Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M., Llenos, A. L., Martinez, E. M., & McBride, S. K. (2019, 08). Aftershock forecasts following the M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes of July 2019. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9467
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., & Werner, M. J. (2019, 08). Operational earthquake forecasting during the M6.4 Searles Valley and M7.1 Ridgecrest sequence using the UCERF3-ETAS model—evaluation and lessons learned. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9401
van der Elst, N. J., Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., McBride, S. K., & Page, M. T. (2018, 08). New software for computing time dependent seismic hazard during aftershock sequences using the OpenSHA platform. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8675
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2018, 08). Faulty Intuition about b-values and Aftershock Productivity within a Fault Network. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8671
Hardebeck, J. L., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2018, 08). Updated California Aftershock Parameters. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8361
Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & McBride, S. K. (2018, 07). The earthquake rates they are a-changin’: Improving forecasts during earthquake swarms. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8226
van der Elst, N. J., & Page, M. T. (2017, 08). Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7836
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & Shaw, B. E. (2017, 08). Characterizing the Triggering Susceptibility of Characteristic Faults. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7477
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T. E., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., & Thatcher, W. R. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters, 88(5), 1259-1267. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3), 1049-1081. doi: 10.1785/0120110177. SCEC Contribution 7163
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Field, E. H., & Milner, K. R. (2016, 08). Testing ETAS Catalogs from UCERF3. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6962
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2016, 08). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6920
Walker, R. L., Hough, S. E., Jha, B., Tsai, V. C., Page, M. T., & Aminzadeh, F. (2016, 08). Using Coupled Geomechanical Modeling to Investigate Potential Production Induced Seismicity. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6791
Hough, S. E., Tsai, V. C., Walker, R. L., Page, M. T., & Hosseini, S. M. (2016, 07). Were the 1952 Kern County and 1933 Long Beach, California, Earthquakes Induced?. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6401
van der Elst, N. J., Page, M. T., Weiser, D. A., Goebel, T. H., & Hosseini, S. M. (2016, 09). Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected. Oral Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6366
Mai, P., Schorlemmer, D., Page, M., Ampuero, J., Asano, K., Causse, M., Custodio, S., Fan, W., Festa, G., Galis, M., Gallovic, F., Imperatori, W., Käser, M., Malytskyy, D., Okuwaki, R., Pollitz, F., Passone, L., Razafindrakoto, H. T., Sekiguchi, H., Song, S., Somala, S. N., Thingbaijam, K. S., Twardzik, C., van Driel, M., Vyas, J. C., Wang, R., Yagi, Y., & Zielke, O. (2016). The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project. Seismological Research Letters, 87(3), 690-708. doi: 10.1785/0220150231. SCEC Contribution 6159
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2099
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2a), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2066
Page, M. T., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., & Powers, P. M. (2014). The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(3), 1181-1204. doi: 10.1785/0120130180. SCEC Contribution 1999
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden Madugo, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2013). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model (1165). , : . SCEC Contribution 1792
Page, M. T., Custodio, S., Archuleta, R. J., & Carlson, J. M. (2009). Constraining Earthquake Source Inversions with GPS Data 1: Resolution Based Removal of Artifacts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114. doi: 10.1029/2007JB005449. SCEC Contribution 1127
Custodio, S., Page, M. T., & Archuleta, R. J. (2009). Constraining earthquake source inversions with GPS data 2: A two-step approach to combine seismic and geodetic datasets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,. doi: 10.1029/2008JB005746. SCEC Contribution 1125
Ma, S., Archuleta, R. J., & Page, M. T. (2007). Effects of Large-Scale Surface Topography on Ground Motions: As Demonstrated by a Study of the San Gabriel Mountains in Los Angeles, California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(6), 2066-2079. doi: 10.1785/0120070040. SCEC Contribution 1087
Last updated Sep 19, 2024.
