Bruce E. Shaw
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
Columbia University
Lamont Research Professor
Expertise: Earthquake physics, earthquake simulators, seismic hazard
About Me
Publications
Shaw, B. E. (2013). Evaluation of magnitude-scaling relationships and depth of rupture, (awaiting publication). SCEC Contribution 1841
Shaw, B. E. (2024, 09). MakeQuake: Developing Validation and Model Intercomparison Tools for Earthquake Simulators. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13681
Gerstenberger, M. C., Van Dissen, R. J., Rollins, C., DiCaprio, C., Thingbaijim, K. S., Bora, S. S., Chamberlain, C., Christophersen, A., Coffey, G. L., Ellis, S., Iturrieta, P. C., Johnson, K. M., Litchfield, N. J., Nicol, A., Milner, K. R., Rastin, S. J., Rhoades, D. A., Seebeck, H., Shaw, B. E., Stirling, M., Wallace, L. M., Allen, T. I., Bradley, B. A., Charlton, D., Clark, K., Fraser, J., Griffin, J., Hamling, I., Howell, A., Hudson-Doyle, E., Hulsey, A., Jurgens, V., Kaiser, A. E., Kirkman, R., Langridge, R. M., Maurer, J. L., Rattenbury, M. S., Ristau, J., Schorlemmer, D., Townend, J., Villamor, P., & Williams, C. A. (2024). The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 182-216. doi: 10.1785/0120230165. SCEC Contribution 13421
Stirling, M., Fitzgerald, M., Shaw, B. E., & Ross, C. (2023). New Magnitude–Area Scaling Relations for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 137-149. doi: 10.1785/0120230114. SCEC Contribution 13423
Gerstenberger, M. C., Bora, S. S., Bradley, B. A., DiCaprio, C., Kaiser, A. E., Manea, E. F., Nicol, A., Rollins, C., Stirling, M., Thingbaijam, K. S., Van Dissen, R. J., Abbott, E. R., Atkinson, G. M., Chamberlain, C., Christophersen, A., Clark, K., Coffey, G. L., de la Torre, C. A., Ellis, S., Fraser, J., Graham, K., Griffin, J., Hamling, I., Hill, M. P., Howell, A., Hulsey, A., Hutchinson, J., Iturrieta, P. C., Johnson, K. M., Jurgens, V., Kirkman, R., Langridge, R. M., Lee, R. L., Litchfield, N. J., Maurer, J. L., Milner, K. R., Rastin, S., Rattenbury, M. S., Rhoades, D. A., Ristau, J., Schorlemmer, D., Seebeck, H., Shaw, B. E., Stafford, P. J., Stolte, A. C., Townend, J., Villamor, P., Wallace, L. M., Weatherill, G., Williams, C. A., & Wotherspoon, L. M. (2023). The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 7-36. doi: 10.1785/0120230182. SCEC Contribution 13422
Shaw, B. E. (2023). Magnitude and Slip Scaling Relations for Fault-Based Seismic Hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(3), 924-947. doi: 10.1785/0120220144. SCEC Contribution 13418
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hatem, A., Powers, P. M., Pollitz, F. F., Llenos, A. L., Zeng, Y., Johnson, K. M., Shaw, B. E., McPhillips, D., Thompson, J., Shumway, A. M., Michael, A. J., Shen, Z., Evans, E. L., Hearn, E. H., Mueller, C. S., Frankel, A., Petersen, M. D., DuRoss, C. B., Briggs, R., Page, M. T., Rubinstein, J. L., & Herrick, J. (2023). The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. doi: 10.1785/0120230120. SCEC Contribution 13392
Petersen, M. D., Shumway, A. M., Powers, P. M., Field, E. H., Moschetti, M. P., Jaiswal, K. S., Milner, K. R., Rezaeian, S., Frankel, A., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Altekruse, J., Ahdi, S. K., Withers, K. B., Mueller, C. S., Zeng, Y., Chase, R., Salditch, L., Luco, N., Rukstales, K. S., Herrick, J. A., Girot, D. L., Aagaard, B. T., Bender, A. M., Blanpied, M. L., Briggs, R., Boyd, O. S., Clayton, B. S., DuRoss, C. B., Evans, E. L., Haeussler, P., Hatem, A., Haynie, K. L., Hearn, E. H., Johnson, K. M., Kortum, Z. A., Kwong, N. S., Makdisi, A. J., Mason, B., McNamara, D., McPhillips, D., Okubo, P., Page, M. T., Pollitz, F. F., Rubinstein, J. L., Shaw, B. E., Shen, Z., Shiro, B., Smith, J. A., Stephenson, W. J., Thompson, E. M., Thompson Jobe, J. A., Wirth, E., & Witter, R. C. (2023). The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications. Earthquake Spectra,. doi: 10.1177/87552930231215428. SCEC Contribution 13391
Shaw, B. E., Milner, K. R., Callaghan, S., Goulet, C. A., & Silva, F. (2023, 09). Deterministic ground motions from an earthquake simulator consistent with NGA-West2 ground motion models. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13014
Callaghan, S., Milner, K. R., Goulet, C. A., Shaw, B. E., Maechling, P. J., Olsen, K. B., Graves, R. W., Vahi, K., Deelman, E., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2022, 04). Non-ergodic PSHA using fully-deterministic physics-based models for Southern California. Oral Presentation at 2022 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12630
Callaghan, S., Maechling, P. J., Silva, F., Goulet, C. A., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Olsen, K. B., Yeh, T., Graves, R. W., Vahi, K., Deelman, E., Kottke, A. R., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2022, 09). Updates to the CyberShake PSHA Platform. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12504
Lau, W., Oskin, M. E., & Shaw, B. E. (2022, 09). Testing earthquake recurrence models with paleoseismic time series. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12035
Shaw, B. E. (2022, 09). Magnitude and Slip Scaling Relations for Fault-Based Seismic Hazard. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11936
Shaw, B. E., Fry, B., Nicol, A., Howell, A., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2022). An Earthquake Simulator for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 112(2), 763-778. doi: 10.1785/0120210087. SCEC Contribution 11836
Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., & Field, E. H. (2022). Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. doi: 10.1785/0120210322. SCEC Contribution 11760
Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Goulet, C. A., Richards-Dinger, K. B., Callaghan, S., Jordan, T. H., Dieterich, J. H., & Field, E. H. (2021). Toward Physics‐Based Nonergodic PSHA: A Prototype Fully Deterministic Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200216. SCEC Contribution 10107
Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., & Jordan, T. H. (2020, 08). Multi-fault rupture plausibility inferences from a deterministic earthquake simulator. Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10630
Callaghan, S., Maechling, P. J., Goulet, C. A., Milner, K. R., Su, M., Graves, R. W., Olsen, K. B., Cui, Y., Aagaard, B. T., Wooddell, K. E., Kottke, A. R., Shaw, B. E., & Jordan, T. H. (2019, 08). New Advances in CyberShake PSHA Models. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9717
Shaw, B. E. (2019, 08). Beyond Backslip: Improvement of Earthquake Simulators from New Hybrid Loading Conditions. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9358
Shaw, B. E. (2019). Beyond Backslip: Improvement of Earthquake Simulators from New Hybrid Loading Conditions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 109(6), 2159-2167. doi: 10.1785/0120180128. SCEC Contribution 10214
Shaw, B. E. (2018, 08). Earthquake Simulators are Ready for Prime Time. Oral Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8839
Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Jordan, T. H., Callaghan, S., & Goulet, C. A. (2018, 08). Fully physics-based PSHA: coupling RSQSim with deterministic ground motion simulations. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8683
Shaw, B. E., Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Richards-Dinger, K., Gilchrist, J. J., Dieterich, J. H., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California. Science Advances, 4(8). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0688. SCEC Contribution 8093
Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Gilchrist, J. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2017, 08). Are Physics-Based Simulators Ready for Prime Time? Comparisons of RSQSim with UCERF3 and Observations. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7835
Gilchrist, J. J., Jordan, T. H., Shaw, B. E., Milner, K. R., Richards-Dinger, K. B., & Dieterich, J. H. (2017, 08). Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7628
Pekurovsky, D., Chourasia, A., Richards-Dinger, K. B., Shaw, B. E., Dieterich, J. H., & Cui, Y. (2017, 08). Performance enhancements and visualization for RSQSim earthquake simulator. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7596
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & Shaw, B. E. (2017, 08). Characterizing the Triggering Susceptibility of Characteristic Faults. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7477
Shaw, B. E., Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Richards-Dinger, K. B., Gilchrist, J. J., Dieterich, J. H., & Jordan, T. H. (2017, 08). Striking agreement of physics-based earthquake simulator and UCERF3 California seismic hazard model. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7458
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T. E., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., & Thatcher, W. R. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters, 88(5), 1259-1267. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3), 1049-1081. doi: 10.1785/0120110177. SCEC Contribution 7163
Pekurovsky, D., Chourasia, A., Richards-Dinger, K. B., Shaw, B. E., Dieterich, J. H., & Cui, Y. (2016, 08). Performance enhancements and visualization for RSQSim earthquake simulator. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6933
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2016, 08). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6920
Shaw, B. E., Ellsworth, W. L., Yoshimitsu, N., Huang, Y., & Beroza, G. C. (2016, 08). Precise relative stress drops. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6613
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2099
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2a), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2066
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden Madugo, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2013). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model (1165). , : . SCEC Contribution 1792
Shaw, B. E. (2013). Earthquake Surface Slip Length Data is Fit by Constant Stress Drop and is Useful for Seismic Hazard Analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 876-893. doi: 10.1785/0120110258. SCEC Contribution 1741
Coon, E. T., & Shaw, B. E. (2011). A Nitsche-extended finite element method for earthquake rupture on complex fault systems. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering , 200, 2859. doi: 10.1016/j.cma.2011.05.005 . SCEC Contribution 1571
Shaw, B. E. (2011). Surface slip gradients of large earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101, 792. doi: 10.1785/0120100053. SCEC Contribution 1570
Scholz, C., Ando, R., & Shaw, B. E. (2010). The mechanics of first order splay faulting: The strike-slip case . Journal of Structural Geology, 32, 118. doi: 10.1016/j.jsg.2009.10.007. SCEC Contribution 1569
Shaw, B. E. (2009). Constant stress drop from small to great earthquakes in magnitude-area scaling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98, 871. doi: 10.1785/0120080006. SCEC Contribution 1389
Helmstetter, A., & Shaw, B. E. (2009). Afterslip and aftershocks in the rate-and-state friction law. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B01308,. doi: 10.1029/2007JB005077. SCEC Contribution 1388
Ando, R., Shaw, B. E., & Scholz, C. (2009). Quantifying natural fault geometry: Statistics of splay fault angles. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99, 389. doi: 10.1785/0120080942. SCEC Contribution 1387
Shaw, B. E. (2008). Slip-length scaling in large earthquakes: The role of deep penetrating slip below the seismogenic layer. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98, 1633. doi: 10.1785/0120070191. SCEC Contribution 1386
Shaw, B. E., & Dieterich, J. H. (2007). Probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L01307. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027980. SCEC Contribution 1385
Helmstetter, A., & Shaw, B. E. (2006). Relation between stress heterogeneity and aftershock rate in the rate-and-state model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111(B07304). doi: 10.1029/2005JB004077. SCEC Contribution 930
Shaw, B. E. (2006). Impact of friction and scale-dependent initial stress on radiated energy-moment scaling. AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, 170, 271. SCEC Contribution 1384
Shaw, B. E. (2006). Initiation propagation and termination of elastodynamic ruptures associated with segmentation of faults and shaking hazard . Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, B08302. doi: 10.1029/2005JB004093. SCEC Contribution 1383
Shaw, B. E. (2004). Variation of large elastodynamic earthquakes on complex fault systems. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L18609. doi: 10.1029/2004GL019943. SCEC Contribution 828
Shaw, B. E. (2004). Dynamic heterogeneities versus fixed heterogeneities in earthquake models. Geophysical Journal International, 156(2), 275-286. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2003.02134.x. SCEC Contribution 827
Shaw, B. E. (2004). Self-Organizing Fault Systems and Self-Organizing Elastodynamic Events on them: Geometry and the Distribution of Sizes of Events. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L17603. doi: 10.1029/2004GL019726. SCEC Contribution 826
Du, W., Sykes, L., Shaw, B. E., & Scholz, C. (2003). Triggered Aseismic Fault Slip from Nearby Earthquakes, Static or Dynamic Effect?. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B2), 2131. doi: 10.1029/2002JB002008. SCEC Contribution 699
Shaw, B. E. (2003). Magnitude dependence of radiated energy spectra: Far-field expressions of slip pulses in earthquake models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B2), 2100. doi: 10.1029/2001JB000741. SCEC Contribution 652
Spyropoulos, C., Scholz, C., & Shaw, B. E. (2002). Transition Regimes for Growing Crack Populations. Physical Review E, 65(5), 056105. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.65.056105. SCEC Contribution 654
Shaw, B. E., & Rice, J. R. (2000). Existence of continuum complexity in the elastodynamics of repeated fault ruptures. Journal of Geophysical Research, 105(B10), 23791-23810. SCEC Contribution 562
Sykes, L., Shaw, B. E., & Scholz, C. (1999). Rethinking Earthquake Prediction. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2-4), 207-232. doi: 10.1007/s000240050263. SCEC Contribution 467
Langer, J. S., Carlson, J. M., Carlson, J., & Shaw, B. E. (1996). Slip Complexity in Dynamic Models of Earthquake Faults. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(9), 3825-3829. SCEC Contribution 444
Myers, C. R., Shaw, B. E., & Langer, J. S. (1996). Slip Complexity in a Crustal-Plane Model of an Earthquake Fault. Physical Review Letters, 77(5), 972-975. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.77.972 . SCEC Contribution 174
Shaw, B. E. (1995). Frictional Weakening and Slip Complexity on Earthquake Faults. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(B9), 18239-18251. SCEC Contribution 173
Dolan, J. F., Sieh, K., Rockwell, T. K., Yeats, R. S., Shaw, B. E., Suppe, J., Huftile, G. J., & Gath, E. M. (1995). Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region. Science, 267(5195), 199-205. doi: 10.1126/science.267.5195.199. SCEC Contribution 119
Pepke, S., Carlson, J., & Shaw, B. E. (1994). Prediction of Large Events on a Dynamical Model of a Fault. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(B4), 6769-6788. SCEC Contribution 63
Shaw, B. E. (1994). Complexity in a Spatially Uniform Continuum Fault Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 21(18), 1983-1986. SCEC Contribution 172
Carlson, J. M., Langer, J. S., & Shaw, B. E. (1994). Dynamics of Earthquake Faults. Reviews of Modern Physics, 66(2), 657-670. doi: 10.1103/RevModPhys.66.657. SCEC Contribution 171
Shaw, B. E. (1993). Generalized Omori Law for Aftershocks and Foreshocks. Geophysical Research Letters, 20(10), 907-910. SCEC Contribution 42
Shaw, B. E. (1993). Moment Spectra in a Simple Model of an Earthquake Fault. Geophysical Research Letters, 20(8), 643-646. SCEC Contribution 28
Last updated Sep 19, 2024.
