William H. Savran
Southern California Earthquake Center
University of Southern California
University of Southern California
Software Engineer
Expertise: Ground Motion Simulations, Statistical Seismology, High Performance Computing
About Me
Publications
William started his SCEC career as a SURE intern in 2011 working with Dr. John Louie. His research focused on developing realistic models of small-scale heterogeneities in upper crust and simulating earthquake ground motions through these complex models. He completed his Bachelor's in Geophysics at University of Nevada, Reno in 2012.
His research as a SCEC intern became the focus of this Ph.D. that he completed in 2017 working with Dr. Kim Olsen and Dr. Steve Day in a joint-doctoral program between San Diego State University and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. During his Ph.D., he became passionate about software development and using software to ensure reproducible scientific results.
William began working at SCEC in January of 2018 as a research programmer for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Within CSEP, William is responsible for researching new ideas for evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and implementing these ideas as tools to allow for unbiased evaluations of earthquake forecasting models. This research aims to improve our capability to forecast earthquakes and to instill confidence in the merits of earthquake forecasting.
SCEC Intern (2011)
His research as a SCEC intern became the focus of this Ph.D. that he completed in 2017 working with Dr. Kim Olsen and Dr. Steve Day in a joint-doctoral program between San Diego State University and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. During his Ph.D., he became passionate about software development and using software to ensure reproducible scientific results.
William began working at SCEC in January of 2018 as a research programmer for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Within CSEP, William is responsible for researching new ideas for evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and implementing these ideas as tools to allow for unbiased evaluations of earthquake forecasting models. This research aims to improve our capability to forecast earthquakes and to instill confidence in the merits of earthquake forecasting.
SCEC Participation
SCEC Staff (2018 - 2022)SCEC Intern (2011)
Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Schorlemmer, D., Herrmann, M., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Graham, K., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Seismological Research Letters. Modernizing CSEP Earthquake Forecasting Experiments: The Floating Testing Center, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 12726
Taborda, R., Olsen, K. B., Graves, R. W., Silva, F., Khoshnevis, N., Savran, W. H., Roten, D., Shi, Z., Goulet, C. A., Bielak, J., Maechling, P. J., Cui, Y., & Jordan, T. H. (2018, 06). High-frequency simulations: Verification and validation of the M5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake. Oral Presentation at 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering. SCEC Contribution 7990
Savran, W. H., Louie, J. N., Flinchum, B., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012). Spatial statistics of the Clark County Parcel Map, trial geotechnical models, and effects on earthquake ground motions in Las Vegas Valley. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, (submitted). SCEC Contribution 1595
Savran, W. H., Louie, J. N., Flinchum, B., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012). Spatial statistics of the Clark County Parcel Map, trial geotechnical models, and effects on earthquake ground motions in Las Vegas Valley. Presentation at 2012 Symposium on Engineering Geology and Geotechnical Engineering. SCEC Contribution 1536
Savran, W. H., Flinchum, B., Plank, G., Dudley, C., Prina, N., & Louie, J. N. (2011). Comparing Physics-Based Next-Level ShakeZoning Computations with USGS ShakeMap Statistics for Southern Nevada Earthquake Scenarios. Oral Presentation at NWRA Symposium 2011. SCEC Contribution 1474
Silva, F., Serafini, F., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Milner, K. R., & Savran, W. H. (2024, 09). Next-day CSEP forecasts: Establishing a Benchmark. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14053
Graham, K., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Iturrieta, P. C., Serafini, F., Biondini, E., Rhoades, D. A., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Gerstenberger, M. C., Silva, F., & Werner, M. J. (2024, 09). Advancements in pyCSEP: Enhancing Earthquake Forecast Evaluation with New Features and Regional Applications. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14015
Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Taroni, M., Falcone, G., Cotton, F., Asim, K. M., Savran, W. H., & Marzocchi, W. (2024). Evaluation of a decade-long prospective earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy. Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220230247. SCEC Contribution 12738
Bayona, J. A., Herrmann, M., Savran, W. H., Silva, F., Maechling, P. J., Marzocchi, W., & Werner, M. J. (2023, 09). A Decade of Prospective Evaluations of One-Day Seismicity Forecasts for California: First Results. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13163
Trugman, D., Savran, W. H., Ruhl, C. J., & Smith, K. (2023, 09). A remarkable sequence in a remote location: A detailed characterization of the 2014-2018 Sheldon, Nevada earthquake swarm. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13005
Maechling, P. J., Silva, F., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Graham, K., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., & Werner, M. J. (2023, 09). Extending pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12877
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Graham, K., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy. The Seismic Record, 3(2), 86-95. doi: 10.1785/0320230006. SCEC Contribution 12706
Asim, K. M., Hainzl, S., Schorlemmer, D., Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., & Marzocchi, W. (2023). Statistical power of spatial earthquake forecast tests. Geophysical Journal International,. doi: doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad030. SCEC Contribution 12691
Mizrahi, L., Nandan, S., Savran, W., Wiemer, S., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2023). Question-Driven Ensembles of Flexible ETAS Models. Seismological Research Letters, 94(2A), 829-843. doi: 10.1785/0220220230. SCEC Contribution 11882
Asim, K. M., Schorlemmer, D., Hainzl, S., Iturrieta, P. C., Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Multi-Resolution Grids in Earthquake Forecasting: The Quadtree Approach. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(1), 333-347. doi: 10.1785/0120220028. SCEC Contribution 12751
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P. C., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2022, 09). Modernizing CSEP experiments: The Floating Testing Center. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12583
Maechling, P. J., Callaghan, S., Milner, K. R., Pauk, E., Savran, W. H., Silva, F., & Su, M. (2022, 09). Improving the Sustainability of SCEC Scientific Software using Software Best Practices. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12576
Mizrahi, L., Nandan, S., Savran, W. H., Wiemer, S., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2022, 09). Question-driven ensembles of flexible ETAS models. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12439
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., & Werner, M. J. (2022, 09). Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models more Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12344
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220220033. SCEC Contribution 11740
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., & Maechling, P. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit For Earthquake Forecast Developers. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(69). doi: 10.21105/joss.03658. SCEC Contribution 11017
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggac018. SCEC Contribution 11011
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Savran, W. H., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021). Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS). The Seismic Record, 1(2), 117-125. doi: 10.1785/0320210017. SCEC Contribution 11677
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., & Werner, M. J. (2021, 08). Are regionally calibrated earthquake forecast models more informative than global models? First results from California and Italy. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11537
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., & Maechling, P. J. (2021, 08). Reproducible earthquake forecasting experiments with pyCSEP. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11535
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Page, M. T., & Jordan, T. H. (2020). Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567-1578. doi: 10.1785/0220190294. SCEC Contribution 9937
Savran, W. H., Khawaja, A. M., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Schorlemmer, D., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2020, 08). PyCSEP: An Open-Source Toolkit for Evaluating Earthquake Forecast Models . Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10342
Savran, W. H. (2020, 08). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Oral Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10341
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Page, M. T., & Jordan, T. H. (2020). Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567-1578. doi: 10.1785/0220190294. SCEC Contribution 10129
Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2020). Kinematic Rupture Generator Based on 3‐D Spontaneous Rupture Simulations Along Geometrically Rough Faults. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(10). doi: 10.1029/2020JB019464. SCEC Contribution 10083
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. doi: 10.1785/0120200026. SCEC Contribution 10082
Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2019). Ground motion simulation and validation of the 2008 Chino Hills earthquake in scattering media. Geophysical Journal International, 219(3), 1836-1850. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggz399. SCEC Contribution 9936
Werner, M. J., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., & Yu, J. (2019, 08). An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9842
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Michael, A. J., Jordan, T. H., & Maechling, P. J. (2019, 08). Pseudo-Prospective Evaluation of Operational UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9576
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., & Werner, M. J. (2019, 08). Operational earthquake forecasting during the M6.4 Searles Valley and M7.1 Ridgecrest sequence using the UCERF3-ETAS model—evaluation and lessons learned. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9401
Shatz, A. C., Pastorino, J., Santa Maria, J. T., Lu, Y., Gugsa, Y. A., Molina, D. E., Savran, W. H., & Jordan, T. H. (2019, 08). Earthquake Forecasting Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9313
Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Werner, M. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., Yu, J., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability version 2.0 (CSEP2.0): New Capabilities in Earthquake Forecasting and Testing . Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8805
Maechling, P. J., Bielak, J., Callaghan, S., Cui, Y., Field, E. H., Goulet, C. A., Graves, R. W., Jordan, T. H., Milner, K. R., Olsen, K. B., Roten, D., Savran, W. H., Silva, F., Su, M., Taborda, R., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The SCEC Software Ecosystem for Earthquake System Science Research. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8582
Cattania, C., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Liukis, M., Savran, W., Christophersen, A., Helmstetter, A., Jimenez, A., Steacy, S., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250. doi: 10.1785/0220180033. SCEC Contribution 8045
Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Day, S. M. (2017, 08). Generating 10 Hz deterministic broadband ground motions using kinematic source descriptions. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7732
Inbal, A., Kong, Q., Allen, R. M., & Savran, W. H. (2017, 08). Earthquake Monitoring with the MyShake Global Smartphone Seismic Network. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7570
Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Day, S. M. (2017, 04). Kinematic Rupture Generator Based on 3D Rough Fault Dynamic Rupture Simulations. Poster Presentation at Seismological Society of America. SCEC Contribution 7278
Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2016, 08). Kinematic source generation based on fractal fault geometries. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6864
Cui, Y., Roten, D., Wang, P., Mu, D., Pearson, C., Withers, K. B., Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., Day, S. M., & Hwu, W. (2016, 08). Recent Improvements to AWP-ODC-GPU supported by Blue Waters PAID Program. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6711
Taborda, R., Olsen, K. B., Graves, R. W., Silva, F., Khoshnevis, N., Savran, W. H., Roten, D., Shi, Z., Goulet, C. A., Bielak, J., Maechling, P. J., Cui, Y., & Jordan, T. H. (2016, 09). Verification and Validation of High-Frequency (fmax = 5 Hz) Ground Motion Simulations of the 2014 M 5.1 La Habra, California, earthquake. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6475
Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2016). Model for Small-Scale Crustal Heterogeneity in Los Angeles Basin Based on Inversion of Sonic Log Data. Geophysical Journal International, 205, 856-863. SCEC Contribution 6178
Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2014). Deterministic simulation of the Mw5.4 Chino Hills event with frequency-dependent attenuation, heterogeneous velocity structure and realistic source model. Seismological Research Letters, 85(2), 498. SCEC Contribution 2001
Flinchum, B., Louie, J. N., Smith, K. D., Savran, W. H., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2014). Validating Nevada ShakeZoning Predictions of Las Vegas Basin Response against 1992 Little Skull Mountain Earthquake Records. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1). doi: 10.1785/0120130059. SCEC Contribution 1594
Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Jacobsen, B. H. (2013, 9). Statistics of velocity structure in the Los Angeles Area. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1892
Olsen, K. B., Savran, W. H., & Jacobsen, B. H. (2013). Ground motion prediction from low-velocity sediments including statistical models of inhomogeneities in Southern California basins. Seismological Research Letters, 84(2), 334. SCEC Contribution 1860
Flinchum, B. A., Savran, W. H., Smith, K. D., Louie, J. N., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012, 10). Validation of Las Vegas basin response to the 1992 Little Skull Mtn. earthquake as predicted by physics-based Nevada ShakeZoning computations. Presentation at 2012 EGGE Conference. SCEC Contribution 1537
Last updated Oct 28, 2024.
