David A. Rhoades
Earth Sciences New Zealand
Emeritus Scientist
Expertise: Statistics, statistical seismology, earthquake predictability, earthquake forecast modelling and testing, precursory seismicity patterns, EEPAS medium-term forecasting model, hybrid forecasting models, seismic hazard.
About Me
Publications
David Rhoades is an Emeritus Scientist and Geophysical Statistician at Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. He is an active participant in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). He is the developer of the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” (EEPAS) medium-term earthquake forecasting model. He has created modelling techniques to combine information from a variety of sources into hybrid forecasting models. He is widely experienced in applying statistics to a range of scientific studies. His present work is mainly focused on improving the EEPAS model.
Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P. C., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Schorlemmer, D., Herrmann, M., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Marzocchi, W., Graham, K., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Seismological Research Letters. Modernizing CSEP Earthquake Forecasting Experiments: The Floating Testing Center, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 12726
Graham, K., Bayona, J. A., Asim, K. M., Iturrieta, P. C., Serafini, F., Biondini, E., Rhoades, D. A., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Gerstenberger, M. C., Silva, F., & Werner, M. J. (2024, 09). Advancements in pyCSEP: Enhancing Earthquake Forecast Evaluation with New Features and Regional Applications. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14015
Gerstenberger, M. C., Van Dissen, R. J., Rollins, C., DiCaprio, C., Thingbaijim, K. S., Bora, S. S., Chamberlain, C., Christophersen, A., Coffey, G. L., Ellis, S., Iturrieta, P. C., Johnson, K. M., Litchfield, N. J., Nicol, A., Milner, K. R., Rastin, S. J., Rhoades, D. A., Seebeck, H., Shaw, B. E., Stirling, M., Wallace, L. M., Allen, T. I., Bradley, B. A., Charlton, D., Clark, K., Fraser, J., Griffin, J., Hamling, I., Howell, A., Hudson-Doyle, E., Hulsey, A., Jurgens, V., Kaiser, A. E., Kirkman, R., Langridge, R. M., Maurer, J. L., Rattenbury, M. S., Ristau, J., Schorlemmer, D., Townend, J., Villamor, P., & Williams, C. A. (2024). The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 182-216. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230165. SCEC Contribution 13421
Gerstenberger, M. C., Bora, S. S., Bradley, B. A., DiCaprio, C., Kaiser, A. E., Manea, E. F., Nicol, A., Rollins, C., Stirling, M., Thingbaijam, K. S., Van Dissen, R. J., Abbott, E. R., Atkinson, G. M., Chamberlain, C., Christophersen, A., Clark, K., Coffey, G. L., de la Torre, C. A., Ellis, S., Fraser, J., Graham, K., Griffin, J., Hamling, I., Hill, M. P., Howell, A., Hulsey, A., Hutchinson, J., Iturrieta, P. C., Johnson, K. M., Jurgens, V., Kirkman, R., Langridge, R. M., Lee, R. L., Litchfield, N. J., Maurer, J. L., Milner, K. R., Rastin, S., Rattenbury, M. S., Rhoades, D. A., Ristau, J., Schorlemmer, D., Seebeck, H., Shaw, B. E., Stafford, P. J., Stolte, A. C., Townend, J., Villamor, P., Wallace, L. M., Weatherill, G., Williams, C. A., & Wotherspoon, L. M. (2023). The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 7-36. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230182. SCEC Contribution 13422
Graham, K., Christophersen, A., Gerstenberger, M. C., & Rhoades, D. A. (2022, 09). Current State of New Zealand’s Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12440
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac018. SCEC Contribution 11011
J Rastin, S., Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Rollins, C., & Christophersen, A. (2021, 08). Towards a distributed seismicity model for the New Zealand national seismic hazard update. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11266
Savran, W. H., Khawaja, A. M., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Schorlemmer, D., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2020, 08). PyCSEP: An Open-Source Toolkit for Evaluating Earthquake Forecast Models . Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10342
J Rastin, S., Rhoades, D. A., & Christophersen, A. (2020, 08). The Effect of Catalog Lead Time on Earthquake Forecasting Using the EEPAS Model. Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10325
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200026. SCEC Contribution 10082
Werner, M. J., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., & Yu, J. (2019, 08). An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9842
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Michael, A. J., Jordan, T. H., & Maechling, P. J. (2019, 08). Pseudo-Prospective Evaluation of Operational UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9576
Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Werner, M. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., Yu, J., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability version 2.0 (CSEP2.0): New Capabilities in Earthquake Forecasting and Testing . Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8805
Rhoades, D. A., & Christophersen, A. (2018, 08). Improved medium-term earthquake forecasting: Compensating for incomplete contributions of precursory earthquakes. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8405
Cattania, C., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Liukis, M., Savran, W., Christophersen, A., Helmstetter, A., Jimenez, A., Steacy, S., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180033. SCEC Contribution 8045
Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D. D., Mak, S., Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Hirata, N., Liukis, M., Maechling, P. J., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. D., & Zhuang, J. (2018). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1305-1313. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180053. SCEC Contribution 8036
Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Liukis, M., Silva, F., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). Highlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Center. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1229-1237. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180032. SCEC Contribution 8012
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., & Harte, D. S. (2017, 08). Earthquake forecasts and their applications following the M7.8 2016 Kaikoura earthquake. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7689
Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., Fry, B., Wallace, L. M., McVerry, G., & Horspool, N. (2017, 07). Earthquake Forecasting in recent large events in New Zealand and the role of CSEP. Oral Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7364
Liukis, M., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Yu, J., Maechling, P. J., Jackson, D. D., Rhoades, D. A., Zechar, Z. D., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., & Working Group, t. (2016, 08). Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6908
Werner, M. J., Liukis, M., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Taroni, M., Zechar, Z. D., & Jordan, T. H. (2016, 08). CSEP Evaluations of 24-Hour Earthquake Forecasting Models for California: New Results and Ensemble Models. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6873
Christophersen, A., Rhoades, D. A., Harte, D. S., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2016, 08). Testing the effect of deficient real-time earthquake catalogs on non-Poissonian earthquake likelihood models: Examples from the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6789
Holden, C., Williams, C. A., & Rhoades, D. A. (2016, 08). Dynamic stress triggering in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6623
Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2016, 08). Earthquake likelihood models for New Zealand combining information on strain rates, earthquakes and faults. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6542
Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., McVerry, G. H., Harte, D. S., & Christophersen, A. (2016, 09). Blurring the boundary between earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard. Oral Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6420
Harte, D. S., Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., & Hainzl, S. (2016). Statistical estimation of the duration of aftershock sequences. Geophysical Journal International, 205(2), 1180-1189. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw075. SCEC Contribution 6268
Rhoades, D. A., Liukis, M., Christophersen, A., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2016). Retrospective tests of hybrid earthquake forecasting models for Canterbury. Geophysical Journal International, 204(1), 440-456. SCEC Contribution 6001
Steacy, S., Gerstenberger, M. C., Williams, C. A., Rhoades, D. A., & Christophersen, A. (2014). A new hybrid Coulomb/statistical model for forecasting aftershock rates. Geophysical Journal International, 196(2), 918-923. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt404. SCEC Contribution 6059
Gerstenberger, M. C., McVerry, G. A., Rhoades, D. A., & Stirling, M. W. (2014). Seismic Hazard Modeling for the Recovery of Christchurch. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1193/021913EQS037M. SCEC Contribution 6058
Schneider, M., Clements, R. A., Rhoades, D. A., & Schorlemmer, D. (2014). Likelihood- and residual-based evaluation of medium-term earthquake forecast models for California. Geophysical Journal International, 198(3), 1307-1318. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu178. SCEC Contribution 2003
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2014). Regional earthquake likelihood models II: Information gains of multiplicative hybrids. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6), 2203-2215. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140035. SCEC Contribution 1837
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., & Liukis, M. (2013, 8). Utilising short-term and medium-term forecasting models for earthquake hazard estimation in the wake of the Canterbury earthquakes. Presentation at GNS Science Consultancy Report 2013. SCEC Contribution 2046
Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2013, 9). Multiplicative Hybrids of Models from the Five-Year RELM Experiment. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1895
Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Liukis, M., & Christophersen, A. (2013, 9). Long-Term Testing of an Operational Earthquake Forecast Model for Canterbury. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv447. SCEC Contribution 1894
Zechar, J. D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., & Jordan, T. H. (2013). Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 787-798. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120186. SCEC Contribution 1664
Rhoades, D. A., & Stirling, M. W. (2012). An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and catalogued earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102, 1593-1599. SCEC Contribution 1521
Rhoades, D. A., Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., & Zechar, J. D. (2010). Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models. Acta Geophysica, 59(4), 728-747. https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-011-0013-5. SCEC Contribution 1456
Zechar, J. D., Gerstenberger, M. C., & Rhoades, D. A. (2010). Likelihood-based Tests for Evaluating Space-Rate-Magnitude Earthquake Forecasts. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(3), 1184-1195. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090192. SCEC Contribution 1340
Gerstenberger, M. C., & Rhoades, D. A. (2010). New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(8-9), 877-892. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0082-4. SCEC Contribution 1240
Rhoades, D. A. (2009). Long-range earthquake forecasting allowing for aftershocks. Geophysical Journal International, 174, 244-256. SCEC Contribution 1239
Rhoades, D. A., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2009). Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(2a), 636-646. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120080063. SCEC Contribution 1186
Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D. D., & Rhoades, D. A. (2007). Earthquake Likelihood Model Testing. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.17. SCEC Contribution 1035
Last updated Feb 12, 2025.
