Nicholas J. van der Elst
Earthquake Science Center
United States Geological Survey
United States Geological Survey
Geophysicist
About Me
Publications
No bio available.
Baltay, A. S., Abercrombie, R. E., Rubinstein, J. L., & van der Elst, N. J. (2024, 09). Using SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study seismic moments to examine Southern California Moment and Magnitude Scales and implications for b-value modeling. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 14030
Clements, T., Cochran, E. S., Minson, S. E., van der Elst, N. J., Yoon, C. E., Baltay, A. S., & Page, M. T. (2024, 09). Beyond Magnitudes and Catalogs: Application of Gutenberg-Richter and Omori Laws to Continuous Seismograms. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13965
van der Elst, N. J. (2024, 09). Using ETAS+ to forecast aftershock sequences. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13953
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & Hainzl, S. (2024, 09). Testing Rate-and-State Predictions of Aftershock Decay with Distance. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13618
Schneider, M., Wein, A., van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Becker, J. S., Castro, R. R., Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Mixco, L., Page, M. T., & Palomo, J. (2023, 09). Visual Communication of Aftershock Forecasts Driven by User Needs . Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13289
Mizrahi, L., Dallo, I., Kuratle, L. D., Christophersen, A., van der Elst, N. J., Werner, M. J., Spassiani, I., Falcone, G., Herrmann, M., Schneider, M., Page, M. T., Iturrieta, P. C., Gerstenberger, M. C., Bayona, J. A., Marzocchi, W., iervolino, i., & Wiemer, S. (2023, 09). Developing, testing and communicating earthquake forecasts: an expert elicitation for good practice recommendations. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13156
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2023, 09). Testing Rate-and-State Predictions of Aftershock Decay. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13099
van der Elst, N. J., & Page, M. T. (2023, 09). A-positive: How to get unbiased rates out of real earthquake catalogs without knowing the magnitude of completeness. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12778
van der Elst, N. J. (2022, 09). The power of positive statistics. Oral Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12569
Schneider, M., Guttorp, P., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M. J., Michael, A. J., Hardebeck, J. L., & Page, M. T. (2022, 09). Bayesian ETAS for Improved Earthquake Rate Models for the Pacific Northwest. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12235
Page, M. T., Cochran, E. S., van der Elst, N. J., Ross, Z. E., & Trugman, D. (2022, 09). Linking fault roughness and earthquake behavior. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12126
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Savran, W. H., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021). Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS). The Seismic Record, 1(2), 117-125. doi: 10.1785/0320210017. SCEC Contribution 11677
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021, 08). Aftershocks Preferentially Occur in Previously Active Areas. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11381
van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., & Page, M. T. (2021, 08). Communicating Aftershock Forecasts for Situational Awareness During Humanitarian Response. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11307
van der Elst, N. J. (2020, 08). Measuring robust b-values from magnitude differences. Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10404
Cochran, E. S., Wolin, E., McNamara, D., Yong, A., Wilson, D., Alvarez, M., van der Elst, N., McClain, A., & Steidl, J. (2020). The U.S. Geological Survey’s Rapid Seismic Array Deployment for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 91(4), 1952-1960. doi: 10.1785/0220190296. SCEC Contribution 10117
Page, M. T., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., & van der Elst, N. J. (2019, 08). Explaining the paleo-event hiatus in California. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9511
Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M., Llenos, A. L., Martinez, E. M., & McBride, S. K. (2019, 08). Aftershock forecasts following the M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes of July 2019. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9467
van der Elst, N. J., Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., McBride, S. K., & Page, M. T. (2018, 08). New software for computing time dependent seismic hazard during aftershock sequences using the OpenSHA platform. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8675
Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2018, 08). Faulty Intuition about b-values and Aftershock Productivity within a Fault Network. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8671
Hardebeck, J. L., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2018, 08). Updated California Aftershock Parameters. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8361
Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & McBride, S. K. (2018, 07). The earthquake rates they are a-changin’: Improving forecasts during earthquake swarms. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8226
van der Elst, N. J., & Page, M. T. (2017, 08). Model-free aftershock forecasts constructed from similar sequences in the past. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7836
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & Shaw, B. E. (2017, 08). Characterizing the Triggering Susceptibility of Characteristic Faults. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7477
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T. E., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., & Thatcher, W. R. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters, 88(5), 1259-1267. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3), 1049-1081. doi: 10.1785/0120110177. SCEC Contribution 7163
Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Field, E. H., & Milner, K. R. (2016, 08). Testing ETAS Catalogs from UCERF3. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6962
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2016, 08). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6920
van der Elst, N. J., Page, M. T., Weiser, D. A., Goebel, T. H., & Hosseini, S. M. (2016, 09). Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected. Oral Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6366
Savage, H. M., & van der Elst, N. J. (2013, 12). Delayed Triggering and Insights into Rate- State Friction Properties During Stick-Slip. Presentation at 2013 AGU Fall Meeting. SCEC Contribution 2052
van der Elst, N. J., Brodsky, E. E., Le Bas, P., & Johnson, P. A. (2012). Auto-acoustic compaction in steady shear flows: Experimental evidence for suppression of shear dilatancy by internal acoustic vibration. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117(B9), B09314. doi: 10.1029/2011JB008897. SCEC Contribution 1866
van der Elst, N. J., & Brodsky, E. E. (2010). Connecting near and farfield earthquake triggering to dynamic strain. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. doi: 10.1029/2009JB006681. SCEC Contribution 1614
Last updated Sep 19, 2024.
