Poster #086, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
Two Foreshock Sequences Post Gulia and Wiemer (2019)
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Poster Presentation
2020 SCEC Annual Meeting, Poster #086, SCEC Contribution #10712 VIEW PDF
ger impending earthquake during the Mw 6.4 foreshock sequence and provides an ambiguous identification of the onset of the Mw 7.1 aftershock sequence. However, the exact result depends strongly on expert judgment. Monte Carlo sampling across a range of reasonable decisions most often results in ambiguous warning levels. In the case of the Puerto Rico sequence, we record significant drops in b‐value prior to and following the largest event (Mw 6.4) in the sequence. The b‐value has still not returned to background levels (12 February 2020). The Ridgecrest sequence roughly conforms to expectations; the Puerto Rico sequence will only do so if a larger event occurs in the future with an ensuing b‐value increase. Any real‐time implementation of this approach will require dense instrumentation, consistent (versioned) low completeness catalogs, well‐calibrated maps of regionalized background b‐values, systematic real‐time catalog production, and robust decision making about the event source volumes to analyze.
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