SCEC Award Number 19235 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title CSEP Workshop: Assessing Progress towards CSEP2 Priorities
Name Organization
Maximilian Werner University of Bristol (United Kingdom) Warner Marzocchi Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Italy) David Rhoades GNS Science (New Zealand) Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Andrew Michael United States Geological Survey
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 5a, 5b, 1e SCEC Groups EFP, Seismology, GM
Report Due Date 10/08/2019 Date Report Submitted 11/13/2019
Project Abstract
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to develop a global cyberinfrastructure for the independent evaluation of earthquake forecasting models and predic-tion algorithms, both prospectively and retrospectively. CSEP thereby contributes to an objective and independent assessment of the predictive power of scientific hypotheses about earthquake occurrences.

The 2019 CSEP workshop focused on two major themes: Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) during the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence and progress towards CSEP2.0 priorities. The workshop featured four sessions. The first two sessions focused on the forecasting of the Ridge-crest sequence. Speakers presented several forecast models, including the official USGS OAFs, simulations from the UCERF3-ETAS (u3etas) model and Coulomb-stress based models. Bill Sav-ran showed new CSEP2 tests of u3etas Ridgecrest forecasts comprised of simulated earthquake catalogs. The third session focused on CSEP updates from around the globe (Italy, New Zea-land, Japan, China and global). The fourth session featured a stimulating discussion around the relative paucity of earthquakes in California over the last hundred odd years compared with earthquake rates implied by the paleo-record.
Intellectual Merit The results contribute to SCEC’s goal of understanding the predictability of earthquakes. Continued improvements in Coulomb rate-state models were presented that are beginning to challenge benchmark ETAS models. USGS public aftershock forecasts were evaluated with a focus on which features could be improved for societal purpose.
Broader Impacts The predictability of earthquakes is of broad interest. Government agencies use seismic hazard models for building planning and other purposes, but the underlying hypotheses in source models remain debated. Our results contrib-ute to this debate. SCEC-sponsored CSEP workshops are the global focal point for CSEP collaborations and pro-gress.
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