Group B, Poster #162, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
Hazard implications and epistemic uncertainties of the updated fault-system inversion model for the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
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Poster Presentation
2023 SCEC Annual Meeting, Poster #162, SCEC Contribution #13060 VIEW PDF
pdated epistemic logic tree contains segmentation branches ranging from fully segmented to fully unsegmented, as well as fault MFD branches ranging from Gutenberg-Richter b=0 to b=1.
We will describe the new model and show hazard comparisons between it and the prior NSHM14/18 model for the Western U.S., distinguishing between changes resulting from methodological enhancements (i.e., inversion setup and constraint implementations) and ingredient changes (i.e., deformation models and scaling relationships). We will also present branch choice-specific hazard results, highlighting the impact of each epistemic logic tree branch on mean hazard.
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We will describe the new model and show hazard comparisons between it and the prior NSHM14/18 model for the Western U.S., distinguishing between changes resulting from methodological enhancements (i.e., inversion setup and constraint implementations) and ingredient changes (i.e., deformation models and scaling relationships). We will also present branch choice-specific hazard results, highlighting the impact of each epistemic logic tree branch on mean hazard.
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