SCEC Award Number 15166 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Epistemic Uncertainties in Earthquake and Ground Motion Forecasts
Name Organization
Maximilian Werner University of Bristol (United Kingdom) Danijel Schorlemmer University of Southern California Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Andrew Michael United States Geological Survey Marco Pagani Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (Switzerland) Morgan Page United States Geological Survey
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 2b, 2e, 4e SCEC Groups CSEP, WGCEP, EFP
Report Due Date 10/12/2015 Date Report Submitted 10/03/2015
Project Abstract
This 1-day workshop was organized jointly by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The goals of the workshop were to strengthen collaborations on the evaluation of earthquake and ground-motion forecasting methods, to assess new CSEP results and to continue reshaping CSEP’s modus operandi to better address the evolving needs of the community. Several major themes were covered. First, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) and its evaluation were a major focus in light of on-going efforts in the US, in New Zealand, and in Italy. Second, the implications of epistemic uncertainty for forecasting (including automated ensemble modeling) and CSEP testing methods were addressed. A third theme was the predictability of fluid injection-induced seismicity. Finally, we will focus on recent research on hazard models testing and evaluation.