NEPEC: the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council

Michael L. Blanpied, & Ramon Arrowsmith

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15296, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) provides advice to the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program on earthquake predictions, time-dependent forecasting, and related research. The Council’s recommendations support the USGS’s responsibility under NEHRP to assess earthquake risks, improve earthquake forecasts, and issue timely earthquake alerts and warnings. The NEPEC was recently moved from an independent advisory committee of the USGS to a standing subcommittee of the Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC), a Federal Advisory Committee that advise the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. Its members are experts in scientific disciplines that bear on earthquake prediction, forecasting natural hazards, or public and stakeholder response to such forecasts.

NEPEC may be convened either to provide rapid advice during a seismic sequence or other rapidly evolving situations, or to provide recommendations on a particular earthquake prediction or other topics brought to it by the USGS. In the 48 years since its initial formation, the Council has examined and advised on a wide swath of topics including the “Palmdale bulge,” the Parkfield Prediction Experiment, scientific investigations of special fault study areas, statistical forecasting models, the testing and evaluation of predictions, and the communication of forecasts to the public. The Council has also evaluated several specific predictions and prediction methods.

Current areas of focus include the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques in earthquake forecasting and prediction, and development of structured communication strategies and advisory frameworks, particularly for use within the Cascadia region.

Key Words
NEPEC, earthquake prediction, earthquake forecasting, testing, evaluation

Citation
Blanpied, M. L., & Arrowsmith, R. (2026, 08). NEPEC: the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)