Operation and Prospect of China CSEP Test Center

Yongxian Zhang, Shengfeng Zhang, Huaizhong Yu, Yue Liu, Weixi Tian, Xiaotao Zhang, Zhengyi Yuan, & Guiping Liu

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15083, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

In the end of 2019, a China-US cooperation project named “CSEP China in the Context of China Seismic Experimental Site (CSEP-CSES)” was approved which is led by Prof. Yongxian Zhang at the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting (IEF), China Earthquake Administration（CEA）, and Prof. Emily Brodsky at UCSC and SCEC. The mission goal of this project is to set up a running CSEP Testing Center in China, which will be a family member of CSEP.

The China CSEP Test Center (CSEP-CN) was finally set up and the original planned mission was completed in the end of 2023, and it was accepted by CSEP community in 2024. The facility and hardware of CSEP China are ready which locates at the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration with area of about 60m2. CSEP-CN system includes ten modules of earthquake forecasting models, those are LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio), SV (State Vector), PI (Pattern Informatics), PI (Relative Intensity), ECV (Earth Crust Vibration), CSP(Comprehensive Seismic Probability), Seismic Rate (SR), Seismic Modulation Ratio (SMR), ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence), b-value, etc. Five test models of R value (Spatial and Temporal), N, ROC and Molchan tests are also included in the CSEP CN system. This System is online and has been applied for seismic hazards evaluation in China by some institutions and local earthquake agencies in China. The real time forecasting results of CSEP-CN have been accepted by Annual Consultation Report produced by China Earthquake Networks Center, who is responsible for Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting in China.

Due to network security, the sysytem has not been open worldwidely. We are planning to develope CSEP2.0 which inludes more Forecasting models and testing models, with the goal of enabling global online deployment.

Key Words
CSEP, China CSEP Test Center, CSEP-CN System, Real time forecasting

Citation
Zhang, Y., Zhang, S., Yu, H., Liu, Y., Tian, W., Zhang, X., Yuan, Z., & Liu, G. (2026, 08). Operation and Prospect of China CSEP Test Center. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)