SCEC Award Number 14148 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Next Steps for Testing Operational Earthquake Forecasts and Seismic Hazard Models
Name Organization
Maximilian Werner Princeton University Danijel Schorlemmer GNS Science (New Zealand) Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Andrew Michael United States Geological Survey
Other Participants Marco Pagani, GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy.
SCEC Priorities 2b, 2e, 4e SCEC Groups CSEP, EFP, WGCEP
Report Due Date 10/06/2014 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), provides a research cyber-infrastructure for independent and prospective testing of earthquake forecasts. As such, CSEP is well situated to evaluate operational forecasting models of earthquake potential and ground motions by the USGS, GEM and other international governmental and non-governmental organizations. The ongoing development and implementation of operational models, however, entail new requirements for CSEP’s infrastructure, methods and experiment design.
The purposes of this workshop were: (i) to assess the evolving needs of agencies for CSEP-based testing of OEF and seismic hazard models, (ii) to disseminate and review recent CSEP and GEM Testing & Evaluation (T&E) results, (iii) to assess the adequacy of CSEP’s current methods and infrastructure in light of evolving needs, and (iv) to gather community input on the next steps for testing OEF and seismic hazard models.
Intellectual Merit This workshop contributed to enhancing CSEP's research cyberinfrastructure for the automated evaluation of earthquake forecasts and predictions. The workshop helped generate community consensus for CSEP's immediate and near-term future plans. These include developing global earthquake forecast experiments to be able to test models on larger earthquakes than possible within Southern California. In addition, plans for testing Operational Earthquake Forecasts issued by government agencies such as the USGS have been developed further.
Broader Impacts This workshop enabled the dissemination of CSEP results amongst a wider group of scientists. Through panel discussions, much feedback was gathered that will help enhance CSEP's cyber-infrastructure for research into the predictability of earthquakes. Eventually, the conclusions from this workshop will help enhance seismic hazard assessments in the form of operational earthquake forecasts and long term hazard models.
Exemplary Figure none (workshop).