Oral Presentation

Over the past two decades, SCEC has built an integrated pipeline for seismic hazard forecasting supported by best available science in aftershock sequence statistics (ETAS), earthquake rupture forecasts (UCERF), and ground motion models. These advances are reflected in a range of open-source tools: UCERF3-ETAS for time-dependent, spatiotemporal rupture and aftershock forecasting; OpenSHA, a modular platform for probabilistic seismic hazard and ground motion calculations; pyCSEP, a standardized framework for rigorous, reproducible earthquake forecast testing and evaluation; and Quakeworx, a cloud-based portal that packages these and additional capabilities into accessible, computationally scalable workflows for the broader community. These tools have supported operational aftershock forecasting during major sequences and catastrophe risk models used in the insurance sector. Ongoing priorities include development of multi-cycle regional scale earthquake simulators with increased physical realism, improved uncertainty quantification for operational use, and documentation to lower the barrier for non-specialist users.