Global earthquake monitoring system based on the method of seismic entropy (MSE): By example of California

Samvel Akopian, & Anna Bayramyan

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15070, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

MSE based on the introduction of new seismic parameters (cumulative energy and entropy), on the concept of a seismic system, and on the law of seismic entropy production. The technology allows to monitor the development of seismic instability in time and space in the specific volume of the geological environment; to monitor and evaluate a possible scenario for the development of seismicity. The theoretical and physical foundations of the method, algorithms and software package have been tested for real regions of the world over the past 36 years. We developed a computer program, which we have been using for global monitoring of strong earthquakes since 2004, expanding the global monitoring system and creating a product – a mobile app, which is currently in the testing phase. At present monitoring covers the highest energy level of all seismically active regions of the world. Monitoring includes the territories of 135 countries of the world and is carried out in the 870 Seismic Systems. The lower threshold for predicted earthquakes begins from magnitudes 5.5. All seismically active regions of the United States are included in the monitoring system.

Monitoring and Forecasting a Mega-Earthquake (М≥7.8) in California. Calculations were performed for the AB, ABC, and BC mega seismic systems. Although these systems are poorly defined, reliable estimates have been made. In all cases, the hazard is localized in Southern California, northwest of Los Angeles. Here, on the western branch of the SAF, which extends all the way to Santa Barbara, in the Ventura-Pitas Point fault area, a destructive earthquake with a magnitude of M=7.8 is being prepared. The final date of this catastrophic earthquake is estimated at March-April 2027. It is shown why the earthquake, expected since 2006, did not occur and is still delayed. Usually, catastrophic earthquakes in California occur on the SAF. The current situation in the system is unusual. The preparation of this earthquake, which started in 1906, has accumulated abnormally high values of cumulative energy and entropy. This is the result of unusual seismic activity in southern California over the past decades. As a result, the most active SAF fault in the Los Angeles area is "locked up", and the danger has migrated to the western branches of this fault. The predicted earthquake will be unusual, with a predominance of vertical rather than horizontal displacements. This situation was observed in California 800 years ago.

Key Words
Seismic cycle; Mathematical modeling; Seismic Entropy, Instability analysis; Seismicity monitoring

Citation
Akopian, S., & Bayramyan, A. (2026, 08). Global earthquake monitoring system based on the method of seismic entropy (MSE): By example of California. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)