Workshop Report: CSEP New Frontiers in Earthquake Forecasting

Maximilian J. Werner, José A. Bayona, & Philip J. Maechling

Published 2024, SCEC Contribution #14218

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) develops global cyberinfra-structure for the blind evaluation of earthquake forecasting models and prediction algorithms. CSEP thereby contributes to an objective and independent assessment of the predictive power of scientific hypotheses about earthquake occurrences, some of which underpin operational fore-casts issued by agencies like the USGS and others around the world. This 2024 workshop suc-cessfully brought together CSEP, USGS and SCEC scientists from around the globe to advance earthquake forecasting and testing. The first session focused on ongoing CSEP activities and evaluations in California, China, Italy and New Zealand. A major focus is the evaluation of 24-hour earthquake forecast models in California over the period 2007-2018, which was a major CSEP initiative. The second session looked further into the future, with presentations ranging from machine-learning based forecasts and insights into predictability of low frequency earth-quakes on the central San Andreas fault. Participants also discussed the required computing re-sources for future CSEP activities and software for visualizing USGS operational forecasts.

Citation
Werner, M. J., Bayona, J. A., & Maechling, P. J. (2024). Workshop Report: CSEP New Frontiers in Earthquake Forecasting. , : Statewide California Earthquake Center. https://www.scec.org/events/2024-scec-csep-workshop