Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California

Zheng-Kang Shen, David D. Jackson, & Yan Y. Kagan

Published 2007, SCEC Contribution #945

Despite great efforts made by geoscientists, precise earthquake prediction still remains illusive. It has become a growing consensus in the recent years that the earthquake process is partially stochastic, and it is more appropriate to take a probabilistic approach to forecasting earthquakes. Because the interseismic, preseismic, and postseismic processes are considered to be mechanically different, different stochastic models may have to be adopted for earthquake forecast models during these different time periods in an earthquake cycle. In this study we attempt to develop a probabilistic earthquake forecast model of intermediate to long times during the interseismic time period, constrained by geodetically derived crustal strain rates.

Citation
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 116-120. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.116.