The structure of fluctuations near mean-field critical points and spinodals and its implication for physical processes

William Klein, Natali Gulbahce, Harvey Gould, John B. Rundle, & Kristy F. Tiampo

Published March 22, 2007, SCEC Contribution #942

We consider the problem of the existence of precursors to nucleation, focusing specifically on the problem of earthquakes. Using numerical simulations of earthquake faults such as slider block models, we show that state vectors can be defined and analyzed from a field theoretic standpoint, similar to other phase dynamical systems. We further show that changes in these state vectors are related to the impending nucleation event. We conclude that hotspots defined by the Pattern Informatics method for earthquake forecasting as developed by Rundle et al. indicate the existence of spatial regions of high stress, which are necessary precursors to earthquakes.

Citation
Klein, W., Gulbahce, N., Gould, H., Rundle, J. B., & Tiampo, K. F. (2007). The structure of fluctuations near mean-field critical points and spinodals and its implication for physical processes. Physical Review E, 75(3). doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.75.031114.