Conditions for runaway ruptures during reservoir operations: magnitude–frequency distribution implications and application to Groningen

Qian Shi, Alexis Sáez, Linxuan Li, Kyungjae Im, Stephen Bourne, Jan van Elk, & Jean-Philippe Avouac

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15434, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

We present a theoretical analysis of an induced seismic rupture propagating from a gas reservoir into the underburden. We use linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) to determine the conditions for self-arrested or runaway ruptures. We derive a phase diagram in which the model parameters (the reservoir thickness, the reservoir pressure depletion, background stress and fracture energy) are combined into two dimensionless numbers. We apply the analysis to the seismicity induced by gas extraction from the Groningen gas field, where earthquakes have remained confined to the close vicinity of the reservoir. We invert the observations for the model parameters. They indicate subcritical initial stress on the underburden faults, meaning that runaway ruptures are possible in principle, but the conditions required for such events to have happened were most likely not met in reality. The model explains well the correlation between reservoir thickness and earthquake magnitude, and the significant deficit of M > 3.0 events compared to the expectation from the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. This tapering implies that the expected maximum magnitude is nearly insensitive to the total number of induced earthquakes and strongly controlled by the reservoir thickness and pressure depletion. Because the forecast is probabilistic and accounts for uncertainties in the model parameters, it does not exclude runaway ruptures; but such events are found to be unlikely. The model offers an operational framework to forecast earthquake magnitudes by constraining the physical model with measurable parameters.

Key Words
Earthquake, induced seismicity, seismic hazards

Citation
Shi, Q., Sáez, A., Li, L., Im, K., Bourne, S., van Elk, J., & Avouac, J. (2026, 08). Conditions for runaway ruptures during reservoir operations: magnitude–frequency distribution implications and application to Groningen. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Fault and Rupture Mechanics (FARM)