Oral Presentation

ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 will be a comprehensive update to the original 2008 ShakeOut Scenario, which catalyzed mitigation investments, emergency planning, and public communication about seismic risk. Nearly 20 years later, our tools for modeling ground motions and secondary geologic hazards have improved substantially and we can create a more accurate model of the ground motions and other hazards. At the same time, the Southern California urban footprint has changed — through population growth, new construction, demographic shifts, widespread retrofitting of some (but not all) vulnerable infrastructure, and the digital transformation of daily life and commerce.

A coalition is forming to create an updated, evidence-based societal impact model for a major San Andreas event, incorporating current populations and building inventories, contemporary economic structures, and present-day social conditions. The final release is targeted for early 2028 — the 20th anniversary of the original scenario and ahead of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. We will focus on losses that will not occur because of major retrofitting initiatives in the last 20 years, as well as the losses we are likely to suffer because of the lack of political will to enact recommendations developed in the first round. The ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 project will provide new methodologies to quantify earthquake risk across California and a framework for public engagement with the results to encourage further mitigation programs.