Simulating induced seismicity mitigation measures in the Permian Basin, Texas

Kayla Kroll, & Elizabeth S. Cochran

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15390, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #179

Induced seismicity resulting from subsurface wastewater disposal can be a challenge to operators that seek to meet production or storage objectives. Effective mitigation of induced seismicity requires proactive evaluation of operational controls. We develop a physics-based workflow to reproduce an observed earthquake sequence and evaluate alternative mitigation strategies. We construct a simplified fault model by fitting planes to catalog earthquakes, constraining fault dimensions and geometry based on observed magnitudes and regional focal mechanisms. Pressure changes on the modeled faults are calculated using an analytical spherical-flow solution calibrated against published simulations based on a detailed geological model. We apply the workflow to the Permian Basin in West Texas, where wastewater disposal has produced earthquake clusters containing several magnitude 5 and larger events.

We generate long-term simulations in RSQSim to condition the fault system and produce plausible initial stresses. We then run 5,000 simulations spanning uncertain rate-and state- friction parameters and initial normal stresses. History matching identifies parameters that best reproduce the TexNet catalog from 2019 to 2025, including event rates, spatial distributions, large-event locations, and Gutenberg-Richter behavior. We use the calibrated model to test four alternative mitigation strategies to compare with the actions to shut-in wells implemented by the operators and the Texas Railroad Commission. The different strategies consider injection volume, distance to the large earthquake centroid, distance to modeled faults, or a well-sensitivity score. The first two strategies investigated substantially increase the number of events larger than M4.5 relative to the baseline. However, the latter two strategies produce earthquake counts and pressure changes comparable to the regulatory baseline despite injecting substantially more fluid, effectively balancing the seismicity mitigation with continued injection. This workflow demonstrates how calibrated physics-based simulations can support proactive operational decisions by providing a framework to rapidly evaluate potential mitigation strategies to reduce induced seismicity.

Citation
Kroll, K., & Cochran, E. S. (2026, 08). Simulating induced seismicity mitigation measures in the Permian Basin, Texas. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Seismology