Representations of earthquake prediction, forecasting, and early warning in popular media

Samantha M. Stanley, Claire Wardle, & Natasha Tiwari

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15309, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

While many people come to understand natural hazards like earthquakes through popular media, these media often prioritize entertainment, action, and emotion over accurate or realistic depictions of earthquake monitoring and warning. This research project comprises a content analysis of how early warning, aftershock forecasting, and prediction are depicted in fictional films. Audiences of this presentation will hear findings such as how earthquake early warning, aftershock forecasting, and predication are scientifically portrayed, how much time is spent on each concept, and significance of each to the plot of the story. Initial findings show that prediction in particular plays an outsized role in storylines. They are often used early in stories to stage danger and establish heroes, and then throughout as a plot device that advances the story. Aftershock forecasts play a smaller role and are typically not accurately represented. Earthquake early warning hardly makes appearances in the studied content. Communication, education, and outreach professionals working to help people understand the realities of earthquake science and how to utilize tools like early warning will benefit from understanding the quality of information made available through popular media. This study can also inform collaborations with media makers, who frequently solicit information from the earth science and hazard communities. Because stories told in popular media formats often include multiple hazards, implications from this research can reach to other climate issues and hazards such as severe weather, volcanoes, and tsunamis.

Key Words
film and media, communication, misinformation, earthquake

Citation
Stanley, S. M., Wardle, C., & Tiwari, N. (2026, 08). Representations of earthquake prediction, forecasting, and early warning in popular media. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Community Capability Building (CCB)