Prototyping Aftershock Forecast Maps and Products Based on User Needs

Max Schneider, & Bianca Artigas

Published September 8, 2024, SCEC Contribution #13914, 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #196

After large earthquakes, aftershock forecasts are released by science agencies and can inform decisions on earthquake response and recovery by diverse users (e.g., emergency managers, critical infrastructure operators, and public information officials, among others). Visual design choices for forecast products can affect how the forecasts are used and understood by such varied groups. We recently held several user workshops in the United States, Mexico and El Salvador and found that user needs for aftershock forecast information may vary by profession, use case, country, and with time since the mainshock. In this study, we prototyped aftershock forecast products to support the distinct user needs found in our workshops by translating user needs into design choices for the product. Design choices were also based on literature-backed best practices in data visualization and cartography for natural hazards. We developed multiple versions of probabilistic shaking forecast maps, where we varied such design choices as color palette, discretization of the data, additional map layers and whether to animate the map. Each prototype corresponded to a version of the forecast map aligned with specific user needs. Additionally, we created non-spatial forecast products around user needs, such as tables or graphics for the forecasted probability or number of aftershocks and how this is forecasted to decrease with time. We carefully considered how to communicate uncertainty across the huge ranges (orders of magnitude) often provided by these forecasts. We assessed these forecast product prototypes with a focus group of our workshop participants from the United States, Mexico and El Salvador, revising products based on their feedback. We discuss implications for the visual communication of earthquake and aftershock forecasts to wide-ranging audiences. Ideas for future testing of our product prototypes include task-based online experiments where participants use candidate forecast products to perform tasks based on common use cases for aftershock forecasts.

Key Words
earthquake forecasting, communication, data visualization, maps, user-centered design, statistical seismology

Citation
Schneider, M., & Artigas, B. (2024, 09). Prototyping Aftershock Forecast Maps and Products Based on User Needs. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)