Displacement Hazard from Distributed Ruptures in Strike‐Slip Earthquakes

Alba M. Rodriguez Padilla, & Michael E. Oskin

Published December 2023, SCEC Contribution #11869

Widespread distributed fracturing during earthquakes threatens infrastructure and lifelines. We combine high‐resolution rupture maps from the five major surface‐rupturing strike‐slip earthquakes in southern California and northern Mexico since 1992 to incorporate the displacements produced by distributed ruptures into a probabilistic displacement hazard analysis framework. Through analysis of the spatial distribution of mapped ruptures and displacements for each of these events, we develop a magnitude‐dependent expression for the probability per unit area of finding a distributed rupture that accommodates a displacement that exceeds a displacement threshold at a given distance from the principal fault. Our model is best applied to estimating expected distributed displacements for strike‐slip earthquakes, similar to those analyzed, with widespread ruptures across immature fault zones.

Citation
Rodriguez Padilla, A. M., & Oskin, M. E. (2023). Displacement Hazard from Distributed Ruptures in Strike‐Slip Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters, 113(6), 2730-2745. doi: 10.1785/0120230044.