SCEC Award Number 24161 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Research Project (Single Investigator / Institution)
Proposal Title Nowcasting Earthquakes in Northern California with Machine Learning: An AI-Based Earthquake Generative Pretrained Transformer ("QuakeGPT")
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
John Rundle University of California, Davis
SCEC Milestones C1-1, D2-1, D2-2, D3-1, D3-3 SCEC Groups RC, EFP, ASI
Report Due Date 03/15/2025 Date Report Submitted 01/09/2025
Project Abstract
 Our major focus with the proposed research was to build an Earthquake Generative Pretrained Transformer model "QuakeGPT" as a means of predicting the future evolution of the large earthquake potential in a defined geographic region. Major finding is that it is possible to track the buildup of earthquake potential, an analogue of the tectonic stress, by tracking the time dependent behavior of small earthquakes.
Intellectual Merit Substantially improves our ability to anticipate the occurrence of major earthquakes in a define region using methods not previously used. Confirms that seismic quiescence of small earthquake rates are the precursor to large earthquakes. Correctly accounts for all possibilities, true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), false negative (FN)
Broader Impacts Consistent with the original vision of Kei Aki, founding director of SCEC, to focus on the idea of the "Master Model" as a means of anticipating major earthquakes.
Project Participants John Rundle (UC Davis), PI. Collaborators: G Fox (UVA), Andrea Donnellan (JPL), Lisa Grant (UCI).
Exemplary Figure Figure 3: Final frame of a southern California video. Notice in particular the enhanced spatial probability extending from the epicentral area of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake in eastern California southwest towards the intersection of the Garlock and White Wolf faults with the San Andreas fault, the general area of the 8/9/2024 Lamont earthquake (circle). Notice also that in the center chart, the chance of a large earthquake is about to increase rapidly. The complete movie can be found at the link [2]. A movie for the entire state of California can be found at the link [3].
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