SCEC Award Number 13185 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Data Gathering and Products)
Proposal Title Continued Development of OpenSHA in Support of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Hazard Assessment, and Loss Modeling
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Edward Field United States Geological Survey Kevin Milner
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 2, 6 SCEC Groups WGCEP, CME, FARM
Report Due Date 03/15/2014 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 Major developments were made in support of UCERF3 development. This included integration of each UCERF3 dataset as input to the inversion, and calculation of the final UCERF3 time independent earthquake rate model utilizing high performance computing. Numerous data products (figures and tables) were also created with OpenSHA from the UCERF3 inversion results (Figure 1). Expected annualized losses (EALs) were also calculated for each UCERF3 logic tree branch and the CB2013 GMPE, which will be used for future tree trimming exercises.
Intellectual Merit UCERF3 related activities and data products calculated in OpenSHA were peer reviewed by the UCERF3 Scientific Review Panel and represent best available science.
Broader Impacts The final UCERF3 time independent model is already being adopted by the National Seismic Hazard Mapping program, National Building Code, and multiple loss modeling companies. If prior models are any guide, it will be a very high impact model.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1
Cover image for final UCERF3 Time Independent model report showing M>=6.7 participation rates throughout California.
http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20131165
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