Project Abstract
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In the past year we have developed formal likelihood testing procedures for earthquake forecasts, defined here as earthquake probability per unit time, latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, and focal mechanism parameters. We have written a paper describing the procedures (schorlemmer et al. 2004) which outlines the testing procedures to be applied to several models beginning at the start of 2005. There will be two classes of models: “long-term” models forecasting magnitude 5 and larger events over a 5 year period, and “short-term” models forecasting magnitude 4 and larger on a daily basis. At this point the procedure is ready to begin operation to see how it performs. Retrospective tests indicate that aftershocks influence the result of the tests rather strongly. Also, aftershocks, even at magnitude 5, might go unreported in the minutes after a larger earthquake. |
