SCEC Award Number 02126
Proposal Category Science Proposal
Proposal Title Earthquake Forecasting: Evaluation of the Colorado PDPC Index Method Using Retrospective Statistical Hypothesis Testing 
Name Organization
John Rundle University of Colorado, Boulder
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities A1 SCEC Groups Seismology, Fault Systems, SHRA
Report Due Date N/A Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
We used a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (“hotspots”) where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis.
Intellectual Merit Advances the field of earthquake forecasting.
Broader Impacts Earthquake forecasting is currently being used to set earthquake insurance rates in California, evaluate the safety of cat bonds, and for other purposes.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1