Gutenberg– Richter or Safer? On the Magnitude–frequency Distributions of Induced Seismicity

Linxuan Li, Kyungjae Im, & Jean-Philippe Avouac

Submitted August 30, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15324, 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #TBD

Injecting fluids into the subsurface frequently triggers earthquakes, yet the maximum magnitude of these events remains difficult to forecast. Earthquake magnitudes are commonly described by the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) distribution, in which earthquake frequency decreases exponentially with magnitude. Here, we use a global compilation of injection-induced earthquake sequences to show that it breaks down in about half of the cases. Instead, these sequences exhibit a deficit of larger earthquakes that is better described by a tapered Gutenberg–Richter (TGR) distribution. Numerical simulations and the observed spatial patterns of induced seismicity suggest that heterogeneous stressing near injection sites and disorganized fault networks limit the growth of large ruptures. These results provide a physical explanation for why induced earthquakes often remain below magnitude 2–3 and offer a framework for evaluating seismic hazard before and during fluid injection operations.

Citation
Li, L., Im, K., & Avouac, J. (2026, 08). Gutenberg– Richter or Safer? On the Magnitude–frequency Distributions of Induced Seismicity. Poster Presentation at 2026 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Fault and Rupture Mechanics (FARM)