A probabilistic displacement hazard assessment framework for coseismic distributed fracturing from strike-slip earthquakes

Alba M. Rodriguez Padilla, & Michael E. Oskin

Published September 11, 2022, SCEC Contribution #12309, 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #150 (PDF)

Widespread distributed fracturing during earthquakes threatens infrastructure and lifelines. We combine high-resolution rupture maps from the four major surface-rupturing strike-slip earthquakes in southern California and northern Mexico since 1992 to incorporate the displacements produced by secondary faulting and fracturing into a probabilistic displacement hazard analysis framework. Through analysis of the length and spatial distribution of mapped fractures for each event, we develop an expression for the probability of finding a fracture that accommodates a displacement that exceeds a given threshold Do at a given distance away from the fault. In our model, Do is a user-input variable that may be adjusted for different engineering applications. Our model is best applied to estimating expected secondary displacements for strike-slip earthquakes with widespread fracturing across immature fault zones, such as the Eastern California Shear Zone or the Walker Lane Belt of California and Nevada, USA.

Citation
Rodriguez Padilla, A. M., & Oskin, M. E. (2022, 09). A probabilistic displacement hazard assessment framework for coseismic distributed fracturing from strike-slip earthquakes. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Fault and Rupture Mechanics (FARM)