Poster #262, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
Pseudo-prospective testing of five year time-independent California earthquake forecasts with inlabru
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Poster Presentation
2021 SCEC Annual Meeting, Poster #262, SCEC Contribution #11511 VIEW PDF
ifornia using both full and declustered earthquake catalogs. We then test these models in a pseudo-prospective way by comparing with observed events over three contiguous 5-year time periods, using forecast tests developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and implemented in the PyCSEP package (Savran et al, 2021).
We compare the inlabru seismicity forecasts with previous results for the California testing region and explore the differences in forecast performance arising from different input data sets and the use of grid-based or simulated catalog-based tests. We demonstrate that the inlabru models perform well overall in pseudo-prospective testing, especially when using the simulated catalog-based tests that make use of full model posteriors.
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We compare the inlabru seismicity forecasts with previous results for the California testing region and explore the differences in forecast performance arising from different input data sets and the use of grid-based or simulated catalog-based tests. We demonstrate that the inlabru models perform well overall in pseudo-prospective testing, especially when using the simulated catalog-based tests that make use of full model posteriors.
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