Poster #253, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
Modified estimation and forecasting of the hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) model for earthquake catalogs in a wide area possessing long- and short-term incompleteness
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Poster Presentation
2021 SCEC Annual Meeting, Poster #253, SCEC Contribution #11394 VIEW PDF
ller aftershocks. Therefore, by estimating the aftershock detection rates that decreases after large earthquakes, we can re-estimate the unbiased parameters of the HIST-ETAS model. As a result, we can visualize how the seismic activity is corrected after large earthquakes, and predict and animate the spatio-temporal earthquake rates in quasi-real time.
References and Software with Manuals
1) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 113, 727-738.
2) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 (10), L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.
3) Ogata et al. (2021) Hierarchical Space-Time Point-Process Models (HIST-PPM): Software Documentation and codes, Computer Science Monographs https://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/csm/index_j.html No. 35, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo; or temporally available in http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/ogata/HIST-PPM-V3/.
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References and Software with Manuals
1) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 113, 727-738.
2) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 (10), L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.
3) Ogata et al. (2021) Hierarchical Space-Time Point-Process Models (HIST-PPM): Software Documentation and codes, Computer Science Monographs https://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/csm/index_j.html No. 35, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo; or temporally available in http://bemlar.ism.ac.jp/ogata/HIST-PPM-V3/.
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