Precursory Swarm and Earthquake Forecasting in Indo-Nepal Himalaya

Prof Daya SHANKER, & Harihar Paudyal

Published August 23, 2016, SCEC Contribution #6826, 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #302

We investigate seismicity data from 1963-2006 in the light of three medium size earthquakes of 1980 (mb 6.1), 1984 (mb 5.6) and 1999 (mb 6.6) occurred in the Western Nepal and its adjoining Indian region which were preceded by well defined patterns of precursory swarm. While scanning seismicity data from 1999 to 2006, it was observed that two additional cases of characteristic seismicity patterns in 1999-2006, and 2003-2006 carry on. In these two cases, though the anomalous seismicity exists, no mainshock has occurred so far. After critical analysis of the data, it is observed that the seismicity from 1999 onwards fluctuates in the order as low-high-low phases. Extension of Precursory Swarm followed by quiescence with a significant low seismicity, which is still continuing, is a signal for the future medium size earthquakes in the region.

Key Words
Precursory Swarm,Seismic Quiescence,Earthquake Forecasting

Citation
SHANKER, P., & Paudyal, H. (2016, 08). Precursory Swarm and Earthquake Forecasting in Indo-Nepal Himalaya. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)