2026 Fault creep rates in the San Francisco Bay Area Workshop Report

Elizabeth H. Madden, & Christie D. Rowe

Published May 14, 2026, SCEC Contribution #15186

Creep has been measured in the San Francisco Bay Area since the 1970s by survey measurements of 89 alignment arrays. This dataset provides evidence for creep transients, which propagate along strike over days to years. Currently there is no plan for continuing measurements, a time-consuming task that may be best shared across the research community. In addition, considering these data alongside alternative methods for observing creep is critical to advance understanding of loading conditions and stress transfer patterns in space and time that underlie fault mechanics, seismic cycling and earthquake dynamics. Limited understanding of how creep influences seismic hazard further underscores the need to focus collaborative research in this area.

With this motivation, we convened a SCEC workshop from March 3-6, 2026 with 58 scientists at San José State University. After field trips to alignment array and strain gauge sites, long format and lightning talks, and breakout discussion sessions, we launched a white paper reviewing current methods for monitoring creep and weighing relative performances of alternative methods. Through this manuscript, we demonstrate the importance of creep monitoring. We document direct and immediate utility of creep studies to address direct displacement hazards and identify fault zones for regulatory applications. We elucidate potential insights arising from new approaches, analytical advances, and integration of laboratory-derived deformation behavior into mechanical and dynamic models of earthquake ruptures and seismic cycles. Creep datasets also are well-poised to train machine learning models that explore relationships between creep and fault characteristics, and creep’s role in seismic cycle.

Citation
Madden, E. H., & Rowe, C. D. (2026). 2026 Fault creep rates in the San Francisco Bay Area Workshop Report. , : Statewide California Earthquake Center. https://www.scec.org/events/2026-fault-creep-workshop/