Synchronization among characteristic earthquakes
Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, & Roland BürgmannPublished September 8, 2024, SCEC Contribution #14023, 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #210
We note that characteristic earthquake repeaters, oceanic transform faults, sub-parallel strike slip faults, and subduction zones can all exhibit synchronization. Nearby faults repeatedly fail characteristically and close in time. Synchronization in some cases persisting many cycles suggests a degree of predictability. Such regularity is remarkable considering that earthquakes are extraordinarily sensitive to the details of the nucleation. Indeed, earthquakes in many settings also do not exhibit synchronization. So what distinguishes the settings prone to synchronization? Characteristic earthquake repeaters in the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault provide a data-rich testing ground to understand the phenomenon. We identify the basic ingredients for synchronization: proximity, regularity, similarity in size, and the limited external perturbation. We note that the details of the nucleation process are not particularly important in maintaining the regularity in the interaction. Thus, measurable characteristics can be used to delineate a phase space of synchronization which can be populated using both observations of characteristic repeating earthquakes and numerical simulation. The synchronization process is an attractive explanation for pulsed seismicity on multi-year time scales in the San Andreas creepings section and in the Japan trench. The rich mathematical framework of synchronization provides a complimentary framework for earthquake interaction, clustering and predictability.
Citation
Dascher-Cousineau, K., & Bürgmann, R. (2024, 09). Synchronization among characteristic earthquakes. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting.
Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
