Progress in long-term earthquake prediction in China

Qi Liu, Zhigang Shao, Wuxing Wang, Lingyun Ji, Fuqiang Shi, Feng Long, Hui Zhang, & Peng Wang

Published September 8, 2024, SCEC Contribution #13500, 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #201

Earthquake disasters are one of the most severe natural disasters. The basic national conditions of earthquake disasters in China are characterized by a high frequency, high intensity, wide distribution, and severe damage. Therefore, the research on earthquake prediction is of great significance in China, and the determination of key earthquake risk areas on a ten-year scale is one of the important tasks. Since strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland are mainly distributed in the boundary zone of active blocks, the main faults in the boundary zone of active blocks have become an important target for the study of strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland. In the past few decades, some studies on global strong earthquakes have shown that if the requirements for the prediction time scale are relaxed, some methods can be used to determine the late stage of strong earthquakes. Therefore, in the determination of key earthquake risk areas in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030, we took the main fault segments in the boundary zone of active blocks in the Chinese mainland as the research object, and used the methods of strong earthquake rupture gap in earthquake geology, fault movement locking segment in geodetic survey, sparse segment of small and medium earthquakes in earthquake activity, and significant segment of Coulomb stress enhancement in numerical simulation to comprehensively determine the main fault segments in the boundary zone of active blocks in the Chinese mainland that may be in the late stage of earthquakes, and accordingly determine the long-term earthquake risk areas. The reliability of the results depends on the continuous improvement of monitoring conditions, and its scientific nature depends on the continuous improvement of the understanding of the dynamic process of the occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland.

Key Words
Boundary zone of active tectonic blocks, Late stage of interseismic period, Seismic gap in fault rupture segments, Locking of the fault movement, Small and moderate earthquakes activity, Coulomb stress change

Citation
Liu, Q., Shao, Z., Wang, W., Ji, L., Shi, F., Long, F., Zhang, H., & Wang, P. (2024, 09). Progress in long-term earthquake prediction in China. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)