Ranking some global forecasts with the Kagan information score

Peter Bird

Published June 13, 2018, SCEC Contribution #11830

The Kagan (2009) information score I_1 is a simple metric for the relative success of the map patterns of any seismicity forecasts with the same spatial extent and the same earthquake selection rules. Because it does not require declustering of either the forecast or the test catalog, it is particularly appropriate for forecasts of total seismicity. Three years of prospective testing have given consistent rankings of four global models of shallow seismicity, demonstrating the expected superiority of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate model v.1 (GEAR1) hybrid forecast relative to its smoothed seismicity and tectonic parent forecasts. Accumulation of I_1 scores and their covariances over a number of consecutive test periods naturally leads to estimated significance of each ranking, so continuing testing is desirable.

Key Words
seismicity, forecast, scoring

Citation
Bird, P. (2018). Ranking some global forecasts with the Kagan information score. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1272-1276. doi: 10.1785/0220180029. http://peterbird.name/publications/2018_I1_scores/2018_I1_scores.htm

Related Projects & Working Groups
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, Seismology