SCEC Award Number 26025 View PDF
Proposal Category Community Workshop
Proposal Title Fault creep rates in the San Francisco Bay Area: A Statewide California Earthquake Center Workshop Proposal
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Elizabeth Madden San Jose State University Christie Rowe University of Nevada, Reno
SCEC Milestones A1-1, A1-2, A1-3, A3-3, A3-4, A3-5 SCEC Groups FARM, SDOT, Geodesy
Report Due Date 04/05/2026 Date Report Submitted 04/22/2026
Project Abstract
 Creep has been measured in the San Francisco Bay Area since the 1970s by survey measurements of 89 alignment arrays. This dataset provides evidence for creep transients, which propagate along strike over days to years. Currently there is no plan for continuing measurements, a time-consuming task that may be best shared across the research community. In addition, considering these data alongside alternative methods for observing creep is critical to advance understanding of loading conditions and stress transfer patterns in space and time that underlie fault mechanics, seismic cycling and earthquake dynamics. Limited understanding of how creep influences seismic hazard further underscores the need to focus collaborative research in this area.

With this motivation, we convened a SCEC workshop from March 3-6, 2026 with 53 scientists at San José State University. After field trips to alignment array and strain gauge sites, long format and lightning talks, and breakout discussion sessions, we launched a white paper reviewing current methods for monitoring creep and weighing relative performances of alternative methods. Through this manuscript, we demonstrate the importance of creep monitoring. We document direct and immediate utility of creep studies to address direct displacement hazards and identify fault zones for regulatory applications. We elucidate potential insights arising from new approaches, analytical advances, and integration of laboratory-derived deformation behavior into mechanical and dynamic models of earthquake ruptures and seismic cycles. Creep datasets also are well-poised to train machine learning models that explore relationships between creep and fault characteristics, and creep’s role in seismic cycle.
SCEC Community Models Used Community Geodetic Model (CGM), Community Fault Model (CFM)
Usage Description We discussed the pros and cons of including the alignment array and potentially other creep data in the SCEC Community Geodetic Model and the SCEC Community Fault Model, as well as the SCEC Fault Slip Rate Database.
Intellectual Merit Understanding aseismic fault slip is potentially revealing of fault loading and stress transfer, which control seismic cycling, earthquake rupture, and seismic hazard. From March 3-6, 53 scientists met at San José State University to evaluate the future of alignment array measurements alongside alternative methods for measuring creep. After field trips to alignment array and strain gauge sites, long format and lightning talks, and breakout discussion sessions, we launched a white paper reviewing the current methods of monitoring creep and weighing the relative performance of alternative methods. We conclude with broad recommendations to serve as a touchstone for future collaboration.
Broader Impacts This workshop included 53 geologists and geophysicists with expertise in a variety of monitoring, analyzing and modeling approaches to characterizing fault creep in order to build a plan for the future. Community-wide collaboration on the forthcoming white paper is evidence of the formation of a network of dedicated creep-focused scientists and a clear deliverable. Approximately half of the attendees are at the early-career stage. Nine graduate students and one undergraduate participated in all aspects of the workshop, including lightning talks and contributions to the white paper.
Project Participants The workshop encouraged partnership and collaboration across academic, government and the private sector. Government scientists came from the U.S. Geological Survey (14), California Geological Survey (2), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (1), Sandia National Lab (1), U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (1) and Nevada Seismological Laboratory (2). The private sector representation included scientists from Moody’s (1), Lettis Consulting (1) and PG&E (1). University researchers represented a variety of institutions from across California and nine other states.
(Listing all 53 participants here exceeds the word count limit.)
Exemplary Figure N/A
Linked Publications

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