SCEC Award Number 18118 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title The Next Leap Forward for SCEC CVMs
Name Organization
Clifford Thurber University of Wisconsin, Madison
Other Participants 25 to 30 people will be invited to attend the workshop. Potential participants are listed in the proposal.
SCEC Priorities 4a, 3a, 3b SCEC Groups CS, Seismology, CXM
Report Due Date 11/01/2018 Date Report Submitted 10/25/2018
Project Abstract
The 2018 SCEC RFP contains numerous references to the need for "continued refinement of existing community models" and the quantification of model uncertainties. The first research priority listed under the SCEC Community Models working group is about convening "a workshop focused on guiding community model development towards self­-consistent and well­integrated community models." Validating CVMs is also a priority topic under Computational Science disciplinary research. The SCEC CVMs are among the most mature of the SCEC community models, but there is no question that the CVMs can still be meaningfully refined and improved, and their uncertainties certainly require further quantification. Perhaps most importantly, the previous pathway for updating the SCEC CVMs is currently not viable, making a new, "open" procedure a critical need. To this end, the goal of this project is to convene a day-long workshop of 25 to 30 scientists, with the following goals:
(1) Assess the current status of the CVMs for California;
(2) Identify the critical needs of the CVM user community;
(3) Define key information needed to improve and/or develop CVMs;
(4) Propose viable workflow strategies for CVM development;
(5) Identify approaches for assessing CVM uncertainties.
Intellectual Merit SCEC5 research goals involve continued refinement of existing community models (CFM, CVM, CSM, CGM), continuing development of newer community models (CTM and CRM), and integration of the models into a self­-consistent suite. Objectives also include quantification of uncertainties and development of techniques for propagating uncertainties from observations through community model development to simulation predictions. This workshop was aimed specifically at CVM refinement and the resultant improvement in ground motion prediction via waveform simulation.
Broader Impacts Development of improved CVMs will lead to more accurate prediction of ground motion from hypothetical earthquakes, which in turn will lead to improved earthquake hazard estimation.
Exemplary Figure No figures are in the report.