SCEC Award Number 15176 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Data Gathering and Products)
Proposal Title Continued Development of OpenSHA/UCERF3 in Support of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Hazard Assessment, and Loss Modeling
Name Organization
Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Edward Field United States Geological Survey
Other Participants Kevin Milner
SCEC Priorities 2b, 2e, 4e SCEC Groups EFP, WGCEP, CS
Report Due Date 03/15/2016 Date Report Submitted 03/14/2016
Project Abstract
Major developments were made in support of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). Development was primarily focused on the UCERF3-ETAS model which will be submitted for publication Spring/Summer 2016. This model bridges the gap between point process spatiotemporal clustering models and the UCERF3-TD finite fault models with elastic rebound. Numerical efficiency of the code was improved and simulations were run on the Stampede supercomputer. An initial implementation of an Operational Aftershock Forecast was also developed which automatically calculates Reasenberg & Jones (1989) statistics for events in the USGS ComCat earthquake catalog. CyberShake collaboration has also been strong in this report period, primarily in support of the Utilization of Ground Motion Simulations committee.
Intellectual Merit The UCERF3-TD model implemented in OpenSHA was published in BSSA in March 2015 and is already being adopted by the loss modeling and SCEC communities. It is the first model of its kind that incorporates elastic rebound probabilities with multi fault ruptures.
Broader Impacts The final UCERF3 time dependent model was released on March 10, 2015 and received broad media attention. The UCERF3-ETAS and Operational Aftershock Forecasting efforts will contribute to a future public facing operational earthquake forecasting system at the USGS.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1
UCERF3-ETAS simulation of seismicity following a M7 earthquake on the Mojave S section of the San Andreas Fault. This particular simulation produced a M7.8 aftershock on the San Andreas Fault, M6.6 on the Fontana Fault, and M7.3 on the Elsinore Fault.
Credits: Kevin Milner (USC)