SCEC Award Number 15049 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title Workshop Supplement to Support Deployment of an OEF System For California
Name Organization
Edward Field United States Geological Survey
Other Participants WGCEP members
SCEC Priorities 2a, 2b, 2e SCEC Groups EFP, WGCEP, CSEP
Report Due Date 11/18/2015 Date Report Submitted 10/13/2015
Project Abstract
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority
(; page 32), the USGS generally lacks both an automated system with which to forecast such events, and official protocols for disseminating potential implications. This capability, known as Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), could provide valuable situational awareness to emergency managers, the public, and other entities interested in preparing for potentially damaging earthquakes.
With the various ingredients in place, including an ETAS component that has been developed for WGCEP’s UCERF3, the USGS has funded a set of Powell Center meetings to resolve final impediments and to deploy an actual system for California ( Specifically, there will be a four-day meeting on each of the following OEF topics: 1) Potential Uses; 2) Viable Scientific Models; 3) Operationalization Challenges; and 4) Verification and Validation (of not only models, but also of product usefulness).
Because the goal of these four-day meetings is to deploy an actual system, they are limited to 15 participants each (those who will get the job done), consistent with the spirit of Powell Center meetings. However, significant practical and scientific challenges remain, such as how to merge point-process, spatiotemporal-clustering models with finite-fault, elastic-rebound models.
We therefore requested funds to bring additional SCEC participants to the first two days of the first two meetings. This broader group not only facilitated consensus on the makeup of the first OEF model, but also helped define research priorities with respect to future improvements. The findings, which provide a foundation for OEF deployments elsewhere, have now been published in Seismological Research Letters by Field et al. (2015; doi: 10.1785/0220150174):
Intellectual Merit These workshops addressed the potential usefulness and scientific challenges associated with the next-generation earthquake forecasting capabilities, know as Operational Earthquake Forecasting.
Broader Impacts The workshops set the stage for deploying an OEF system at the USGS, which would be used by many potential user groups.
Exemplary Figure none submitted