SCEC Award Number 13014 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Earthquake Rupture and Tsunami Simulations: Ventura-Pitas Point Fault System
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Steven Ward University of California, Santa Cruz
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 2, 4 SCEC Groups WGCEP, Simulators
Report Due Date 03/15/2014 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 In the past several years, geologists have presented new evidence that the Ventura and Pitas Point faults may ‘link together’ and rupture simultaneously in earthquakes far larger than had been previously believed. Because for much of their length, these faults lie under Santa Barbara Channel, a sizeable thrust event on this linked system could pose a serious and previously unrecognized hazard in the form of tsunami. In 2013 I have been modeling the tsunami and in-undation extent of various faulting scenarios that developed by the Ventura Special Fault Study Group as well as my own rupture scenarios that arise from applications of ‘ALLCAL–style’ physics-based earthquake simulations.

An adjunct effort of this proposal in 2013 dealt with earthquake simulators. A major accomplishment up-stepped from the existing ALLCAL2 fault system to one that represents the newly released UCERF3 fault system as closely as possible. The UCERF3 fault system consists of down dip width, strike, dip, rake, geological slip rate and surface traces of 313 fault sections. Surface traces consist of two endpoints and perhaps several points in-between. As provided however, the UCERF3 fault system is not suitable for earthquake simulation. Fact is, no unique way exists to adapt the UCERF3 fault system for earthquake simulation. Certain assumptions have to be made. Accordingly, I call my product UCERF3-ES to differentiate the two sets (ES referring to Earthquake Simulator).
Intellectual Merit Both the earthquake simulator and tsunami modeling efforts are on the top tier of integration. Bringing all the pieces to one table is SCEC's primary mission in developing system level science.
Broader Impacts Both the earthquake simulator effort and the tsunami effort both help to quantify natural hazard. Quantification is the first step toward mitigation.

I make my videos and YouTube movies of geophysical events. These are viewed by 1000s of people worldwide. Who knows how many yet-to-be scientists have been
motivated by watching these simulations.
Exemplary Figure Figure 2 of the report.
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