SCEC Award Number 09011 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title The effect of structural complexity and fault roughness on fault segment size and multi-segment rupture probability
Name Organization
Ramon Arrowsmith Arizona State University
Other Participants Olaf Zielke
SCEC Priorities A9, A10, A6 SCEC Groups Geology, FARM, WGCEP
Report Due Date 02/28/2010 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
We seek to investigate the effect of fault geometric roughness and structural complexity (e.g., segment separation, difference in strike) on earthquake rupture size and multi-segment rupture probability using a numerical earthquake simulator. We are participating with our simulator FIMozFric in the SCEC “Numerical Earthquake Simulator” workshops for simulator code validation and testing. Here, we propose to explore the spatial and temporal stability of fault segmentation and determine the probability of fault-to-fault rupture as a function of geometric fault roughness, fault separation, and difference in strike (science objective A9). Our study will constrain the “characteristic” earthquake magnitude and assess the predictability of rupture extent not only as a function of a fault segment’s length, but also its geometric and structural complexity (A9, A10), leading to a better understanding of the physical basis for earthquake predictability (A6). The results of the proposed study, together with the SCEC Community Fault Model (CFM), constrain magnitude and probability of large, single as well as multi-segment rupture events in southern California. It will thus make a direct contribution to the goals of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP).