SCEC Award Number 08141 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Spontaneous and triggered earthquakes in diverse tectonic zones of the globe
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Frederic Schoenberg University of California, Los Angeles Yan Kagan University of California, Los Angeles Peter Bird University of California, Los Angeles
Other Participants Graduate students Annie Chu and Qi Wang
SCEC Priorities A6, A4, A9 SCEC Groups EFP, CSEP
Report Due Date 02/28/2009 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 We will extend existing branching models for earthquake occurrences by incorporating potentially important estimates of tectonic deformation and by allowing the parameters in the models to vary across different tectonic zones. We will use these models to develop earthquake forecasts (i.e., maps of expected rate of occurrences of earthquakes above a given threshold
magnitude) in several different categories: long-term (e.g., 5+ years, emphasizing spontaneous mainshocks) based on tectonic deformation and long-term clustering as recorded in catalogs; and short-term (e.g., daily, with emphasis on triggered seismicity). After initial retrospective testing, those which appear to have merit will be offered to CSEP for formal prospective testing. Each forecast will be global (or at least hemispheric) to permit relatively rapid and conclusive testing. These forecasts will differ in the weights they put on tectonic deformation versus instrumental seismicity, but all will take account of the large differences in seismicity between different
classes of plate boundary or different tectonic zones.
Intellectual Merit N/A
Broader Impacts N/A
Exemplary Figure N/A
Linked Publications

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