SCEC Award Number 08084 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title Workshop on Comparison and Validation of Earthquake Simulators
Name Organization
Terry Tullis Brown University
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities A6, A10, A9 SCEC Groups WGCEP, EFP, FARM
Report Due Date 02/28/2009 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
This was a workshop to bring together those in the SCEC community who are working on various types of computer simulators of earthquake sequences. The principal purposes of the workshop were to allow the participants 1) to compare the results from the first two simple problems we devised during the past year: (a) a test that the stresses computed by each simulator matched those from the Okada solutions and (b) a simple strike-slip fault problem, 2) to define the next generation of tests for our comparison exercises, 3) to determine what kinds of tests could be done for validation and verification of our results, and 4) to determine what additional sources of funds might exist for supporting simulator research and discuss if any interactions with other groups such as CIG, might make sense.
Intellectual Merit Earthquake simulators, namely computer models in which a series of earthquakes spontaneously occur, are important for a variety of reasons. They can help us understand the mechanics of earthquakes. They can help us learn whether earthquakes may be predictable and how they might be predicted. However, for earthquake simulators to be useful for such purposes they much behave in a manner that has elements of reality in their behavior. Determining how realistic and useful simulator results are is a difficult task. This is in part because of the complexity of the behavior that can occur and the limited database of long sequences of natural earthquakes, especially large ones, against which to compare the simulators’ behavior. It is difficult to construct a simulator that simultaneously incorporates all that is known about frictional behavior of rock, includes full elastodynamics, utilizes both small enough elements to properly represent a continuum and sufficient elements to cover a large geographic area and a large number of faults. Consequently all simulators make compromises. This report summarizes our second workshop on this subject
Broader Impacts This workshop assists in developing an understanding of possible earthquake histories that we anticipate will be useful for developing physics-based understanding of the probability of occurrence of earthquakes, both time-independent and time-dependent. This can help develop better versions of the UCERF which is required by statute to be used in developing earthquake insurance rates by CEA.
Exemplary Figure No figures - this is only a workshop report. Figures are in the reports for the EQ Simulator Comparison grants.