Project Abstract
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Funding through SCEC-II grants in 2003-2005 resulted in significant progress in the analysis of paleoseismic data for seismic hazard assessment. This work has progressed by focusing on under-utilized data from paleoseismic studies such as displacement-per-event measurements and properties of multiple site records. We propose, first, to continue this progress by developing means to incorporate new data classes into our procedure for defining ruptures (“pearl-stringing”) and scenario constraint. New data classes include those where the number of events since a certain time is known but the individual dates are not, and where a total displacement and the number of contributing rupture are known, but the event dates are not. Sites on the southern San Andreas fault with this type of data include Littlerock, Pitman Canyon, and Cajon Creek. These methods will be applied to the southern San Andreas fault paleoseismic record; the new capabilities, however, have potential application wherever similar data exist. The second proposed work would combine this new site information with recent results developed for the Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). The objective would be a best-estimate model for the most recent 1200-year history of the southern San Andreas fault. Beside the new site data, this will entail implementing new constraints on scenarios, including per-event displacement checks and developing a capability to adjust scenarios by hand. A small amount of time is reserved for a third objective of this proposal, to interact with the WGCEP over these and previous results. |
