Project Abstract
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Our kinematic finite-element code (NeoKinema) uses an iterative weighted least-squares technique to find the long-term-average velocity field of the Earth surface, subject to constraints of known fault traces and dips, long-term geologic slip rates, short-term geodetic velocities, and stress directions. In the past, we applied this code to UCLA data compilations by myself and coworkers, leading to a RELM forecast of long-term California seismicity and a publication. In 2007, we will repeat the calculations using community data bases for California (Community Fault Model, geologic slip rates derived from the PaleoSites data base, and the latest Crustal Motion Model). Input geologic slip rates and their (large) uncertainties for each fault section
will be those obtained by objective statistical analysis in an automated program I developed this year. Uncertainty of the NeoKinema output long-term slip rates will be estimated by multiple runs with different weights and fault sets. These output slip rates (and anelastic strain rates between faults) will directly benefit the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
as they prepare Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast versions 3+. In addition, we will compute an alternative seismicity forecast by the SHIFT method, for comparison with UCERF 2 & 3, to highlight any potential problem areas requiring further study. |
