Project Abstract
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We have recently developed two useful tools for forecasting long-term-average (Poissonian) seismicity maps at any desired magnitude: (1) A kinematic finite-element program which uses geologic, geodetic, stress-direction, and plate-rotation data to solve for long-term-average fault slip rates and anelastic strain rates in a self-consistent fashion; (2) A global calibration of plate-boundary seismicity which permits us to convert fault slip rates and/or anelastic strain rates to long-term seismicity rates. We are already applying these tools to the western U.S. Under this proposal ,we will repeat the modeling of southern California at higher resolution (with CFM fault traces, FAD data, CMM 3.0 geodesy, and velocity boundary conditions from the regional model) and predict fault slip rates, maps of off-fault anelastic strain rate, long-term-average seismicity, and measures of shaking. These results whill have immediate value as an SHA/RELM product, will cast new light on possible time-dependence of southern California seismicity, and may point to regions where dangerous faults or shear bands remain undetected. |
