Quantification of earthquake Predictability and detailing of entropy-based scores for evaluating earthquake forecast
Jiancang ZhuangPublished September 8, 2024, SCEC Contribution #14061, 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #217
In earthquake forecasting, there is a significant gap between complete randomness and complete deterministicity. This presentation begins by discussing how to quantify predictability and outlining the current state of earthquake predictability from an information-theoretic perspective. It then explores scoring criteria based on information entropy, referencing the scoring methods used by the CSEP testing center, specifically by introducing the marginal score and conditional score. This study illustrates how these scores are calculated and what quantitative relationships are between them.
Citation
Zhuang, J. (2024, 09). Quantification of earthquake Predictability and detailing of entropy-based scores for evaluating earthquake forecast. Poster Presentation at 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting.
Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
