A more realistic model for the probability of large earthquakes

James S. Neely, Leah Salditch, Bruce D. Spencer, & Seth Stein

Published August 13, 2021, SCEC Contribution #11362, 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #250 (PDF)

Earthquake hazard mitigation requires accurate earthquake probability models. However, current models ignore complexities of the strain accumulation and release processes that drive earthquakes. They assume that a large earthquake releases all accumulated strain, a simplification that conflicts with earthquake histories showing complex temporal patterns. They also allow earthquake probability to decrease with time as additional strain accumulates. We use the Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM) model, which better reflects the underlying strain accumulation and release processes, to calculate earthquake probabilities along the southern San Andreas fault. LTFM produces similar 30-year earthquake probability forecasts to the other models today, but by 2100 the LTFM forecast is nearly 50% higher. LTFM’s estimates depend on the specific timing of past earthquakes, allowing for more realistic forecasts.

Citation
Neely, J. S., Salditch, L., Spencer, B. D., & Stein, S. (2021, 08). A more realistic model for the probability of large earthquakes. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)